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SHRM Report: June 2010 Hiring Expectations Rise to Resemble Pre-Recession 2007
 

   6/4/2010
 

SHRM Report: June 2010 Hiring Expectations Rise to Resemble Pre-Recession 2007 

Alexandria, Va. Though the job market remains weak, June 2010 hiring expectations show a double-digit jump in the number of companies that will hire versus layoff according to a monthly survey of human resource (HR) professionals at more than 1,000 companies across the country.

The findings are detailed in the Society for Human Resource Management’s (SHRM) Leading Indicators of National Employment® (LINE®) Report, which includes the only national employment index of month-ahead hiring expectations.

The SHRM LINE Report shows that a net of 44.9 percent of manufacturing companies will add jobs in June as will a net of 50.8 percent in the service sector. The numbers will mark the eighth straight month that hiring will increase in the manufacturing and service sectors on an annual basis.

“The 2010 numbers are not only greatly improved over this time last year, but look more in line with hiring activity seen three years ago in pre-recession 2007,” said Jennifer Schramm, manager of workplace trends and forecasting at SHRM.

A closer look at manufacturing sector year-over-year numbers show that roughly 51 percent of HR managers expect their companies to hire this month while only 6.1 percent report plans to cut jobs — a net of 44.9 percent. In June 2009 only 24.5 percent of HR professionals surveyed said their company hired while more, 25.9 percent, laid off workers for a net of negative 1.4 percent, making the year-over-year difference a gain of 46.3 points.

In the service sector, year-over-year numbers show 57.7 percent of HR managers expect to fill jobs vacancies in June 2010 and only 6.9 percent report plans to cut jobs — a net of 50.8 percent.  In June 2009 41.4 percent of HR professionals said their company hired while 16.6 percent laid off workers for a net of 24.8 percent — creating a year-over-year improvement of 26 points.

The 51 percent of manufacturers that will hire in June 2010 is catching up to the 56.1 percent that hired three years ago in June 2007. 

Service sector companies are also catching up to pre-recession hiring activity with 57.7 percent expected to fill jobs in June 2010 compared to 68.5 percent in June 2007.

The June 2010 SHRM LINE Report highlights a set of labor market indicators tracking four national employment measures: (1) employment expectations; (2) job vacancies; (3) new-hire compensation; and (4) recruiting difficulty. In short, LINE provides a snapshot of anticipated hiring for the month ahead and also examines data from the previous month.

New-hire compensation inches up

The new-hire compensation index reports the previous month’s data. The current report shows that in May 2010, the rate of new-hire compensation increased in both sectors on an annual basis.

In the manufacturing sector, 4.4 percent of employers increased new-hire salaries and benefits while a mere 0.7 percent decreased for a net total of 3.7 percent. Compared with May 2009, the May 2010 increase marks a 3.8 point jump in new-hire compensation.

In the service sector, 3.5 percent of employers increased compensation packages while 1.6 percent reduced compensation packages for a net total of 1.9 percent, an 11.5 point year-over-year increase.

Salaried job openings increasing:

  • Exempt vacancies (manufacturing sector) –  May 2010 findings  show a net total of  14.9 percent of HR professionals reported increases in exempt, primarily salaried, jobs available. (Specifically, 22 percent reported increases while 7.1 reported decreases.)
  • Examined year-over-year, the manufacturing sector exempt vacancies represent a 13.1 point increase from May 2009, and the 10th consecutive month that exempt vacancies are higher compared to same month, previous year.
  • Exempt vacancies (service sector) – A net total of 19.3 percent of firms reported an increase in exempt job vacancies in May 2010. (Specifically, 25.9 percent reported increases while 6.6 percent reported decreases.)
  • Examined year-over-year, the service sector exempt vacancies represent a 26.5 point increase from May 2009. The service sector, like the manufacturing sector, also experienced its 10th straight month during which exempt vacancies were higher compared to the previous year.

Hourly jobs openings:

  • Nonexempt vacancies (manufacturing sector) – May 2010 numbers show a net total of 23.9 percent of HR managers reported an increase in their company’s nonexempt, or hourly, employment vacancy rate. (Specifically, 32.3 percent reported increases while 8.4 percent reported decreases.)
  • Examined year-over-year, the nonexempt employment vacancy rate for manufacturing jobs represents a 21.6 point increase from one year ago.
  • Nonexempt vacancies (service sector) – A net total of 20.6 percent reported an increase in hourly job vacancies in May. (Specifically, 31 percent reported an increase while 10.4 percent reported a decrease.)
  • Examined year-over-year, the May 2010 service sector nonexempt employment vacancy rate marks a 29.1 point increase from May 2009.

To read the SHRM LINE Report, visit: http://www.shrm.org/Research/MonthlyEmploymentIndices/Pages/default.aspx and click the “Latest LINE Report” button.

The LINE Report is based on a monthly survey of human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 private service-sector companies. Together, these two sectors comprise more than 90 percent of America’s private sector employment.

Reporters note: The SHRM LINE Report is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on the third Friday following the conclusion of the week containing the 12th of the month. The SHRM employment expectations index describes the same time period referenced approximately one month later in the Employment Situation Report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

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About the Society for Human Resource Management

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) is the world’s largest association devoted to human resource management. Representing more than 250,000 members in over 140 countries, the Society serves the needs of HR professionals and advances the interests of the HR profession. Founded in 1948, SHRM has more than 575 affiliated chapters within the United States and subsidiary offices in China and India. Visit SHRM Online at www.shrm.org.

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