12/7/07 6:00 AM

Migration, New Wealth, Time Stress Impact Workplaces

By J.J. Smith

International migration is going to continue, and causing employers to develop and implement programs to attract and retain workers, Tom Conger, futurist, told an audience at the Society for Human Resource Management’s recent 2007 Leadership Conference in Arlington, Va.

The numbers for annual international migration went from 145 million during the 1990s to 190 million by 2005, said Conger, who is founder of Social Technologies, a global research and consulting firm specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy and innovation. Such mass migration of people will drive new trends in areas such as entertainment, food, social values and language, but a new trend that has been produced is economic, he said while discussing trends and lifestyles that affect global business.

Immigrant workers are sending large parts of their wages to their countries of origin—presumably to support family in those location—so that about $100 billion per year in migrant workers’ pay is flowing globally, Conger said. Employers can help their workers and the company by allowing the employees to remit money overseas via automatic deposit, he said. While there is a chance some immigrant workers will be illegal aliens, by enabling immigrant employees to remit money overseas, companies will provide a benefit that can help attract and retain employees, he said.

While employers might focus on international migration, domestic migration—mostly urbanization—is another trend which companies need to be aware of, Conger said. A milestone was reached during 2005 when the combined populations of cities surpassed the populations of rural areas, and that is expected to continue until at least 2030 when 61 percent of the world’s population will be urban, he said. However, most population growth is not going to be in the “mega-cities”—cities with at least 10 million inhabitants; more than half of the growth is likely to occur in cities with 500,000 or less inhabitants, he added.

The increased urbanization is occurring in the three “worlds” that have developed around the globe, Conger said. The three worlds, the criteria used to determine which group a country or region should be listed in, and examples of the countries and regions in each group are:

• World one is composed of technology producing countries, such as Japan, the United States and most of Western Europe.

• World two is composed of countries in going through the transition of moving from being underdeveloped to becoming technology producing countries, such as Brazil, China, India and Russia.

• World three is comprised of countries where resources are not available, such as Bangladesh, Haiti and sub-Sahara Africa.

Along with migration having an effect on future lifestyles, population growth is creating another large trend employers and governments will have to monitor, Conger said. In 1990 there were only 1.5 billion people on the planet, but by 2030 the globe’s population will reach 7.8 billion, with 95 percent of that growth in world two countries, he said. Conversely, by 2030 there will be world one countries that are actually going to decline in population, he said. Currently, the United States is growing because migrants who have immigrated to the United States often have higher fertility rates than those who are native born, he added.

Employers should find such population and migration trends important because the members of growing populations are also first-time consumers of products that drive economies, Conger said. It is very important for companies to be located in areas with growing populations, because so long as the economy is growing, the opportunities for business remain, he said.

Rising Wealth

The rise in wealth among Asian countries has raised the economic and cultural powers of those nationals enough so corporate officials overseeing operations in those countries are experiencing rising consumerism, middle class growth, modernization and time pressures, Conger said. The gross domestic products of some Asian countries are rising in part because of the growth in those nations’ science and technological capabilities, he said. Some U.S. companies are facing increasing competition from world two companies, he added. In addition, the new wealth has increased “optimism and pride” among the populations of Asia that are experiencing the economic growth, he said. “The people of China, India and Vietnam have a sense they will be sitting at the big table as their countries come into their own,” he said. Because of that, those populations behave differently and are more comfortable exporting their cultures.

Middle class growth in world two and world three countries is being led by growth in the emerging markets, Conger said. “It’s difficult to say exactly what qualifies as middle class,” but a global “benchmark” of annual spending of $7,000 to $10,000 per year per family is now being used, he said. While $10,000 of annual spending “doesn’t seem like a lot of money, the main thing is that at even what might be considered a low economic level, it is interesting how quickly a consumer will adopt middle class values and how they approach things,” he said. Being middle class is defined not only by how much an earner—and an earner’s family—can purchase, but also by the values that are attached to having such increased purchasing power, he said. Researchers have found that consumers who have annual spending budgets of at least $7,000 begin to adopt middle class values, even if they cannot purchase as much as their middle class counterparts, he said. Employers need to know that middle class consumerism is not just about buying something—lots of people buy things—but that once a worker reaches the appropriate income level, it becomes a key part of the worker’s daily life.

Time Pressures

In order to reach desired income levels, employees—especially in world two—are accepting intense time pressures, Conger said. Time pressure is obviously the most intense in world one, but it is changing faster in world two, where it is a lot more disruptive, he added. In world one, increased time pressures evolved over several decades, allowing workers to adapt, but in world two the transition is happening much more quickly, and without supporting networks, he said.

Culture

At one time the word “globalization” really meant “Americanization,” because much of what was being exported culturally around the world originated in the United States, Conger said. But other “cultural pulls” are emerging in different environments, adding to the diversity of each environment and creating more diverse cues on consumer life and how people should live, as well as providing opportunities for interplay between cultures, he added.

Corporate Transparency

In terms of the effect corporate transparency has globally, “it is still a rather immature trend” that could be considered as “emerging,” Conger said. But corporate transparency is going to receive much attention over the next five years, he said, because organizations are going to have the ability to learn a lot about obtaining company information such as the exploration and well maintenance practices of petroleum companies, he said. The public is going to learn more about those types of corporate activities to the point that transparency is going to be a key part of the corporate decision making process, he said.

J.J. Smith is editor/manager of SHRM Online’s Global HR Focus Area.