SHRM/Rutgers LINE® Index Forecasts December Drop in Manufacturing and Service-Sector Hiring

Aug 31, 2007
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SHRM/Rutgers LINE® Index Forecasts Slower Growth in Manufacturing Hiring and Stronger Growth in Service-Sector Hiring for September 2007

Alexandria, Va., Aug. 31, 2007 ─ According to new numbers from the SHRM/RutgersLeading Indicator of National Employment® (LINE®), manufacturing hiring will be much weaker in September 2007 compared with a year ago while service-sector hiring will be slightly stronger.

The findings are reported in the August LINE index, an economic indicator that forecasts changes in the national job market by surveying human resource executives at more than 1,000 manufacturing and service-sector firms. The LINE report is a collaborative effort between the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and the Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations.

The indicator reports on four employment measures: job expectations, job vacancies, new-hire compensation and recruitment difficulty. The LINE employment expectations index provides an early indication of the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) numbers, released five weeks later.

Manufacturing Sector

The LINE index of manufacturing-employment expectations forecasts a significant drop in hiring for September 2007 (31.4) compared to September 2006 (46.9 percent).

Employers reported a drop in the exempt-employment vacancy index for August, the month leading into the September forecast—13.6 during August 2007 versus 14.9 in August 2006.

The non-exempt employment vacancy index also fell, to 17.0 in August 2007 from 22.4 in August 2006.

Compared to a year ago, there was a substantial decrease in the recruiting difficulty index—19.6 in August 2007 versus 24.8 in August 2006.

The new-hire compensation index for August 2007 dropped to 9.5 from 10.7 in August 2006.

Julie Malveaux 703-535-6273
jmalveaux@shrm.org

Jennifer Hughes 703-535-6072
jhughes@shrm.org

Jeanene Harris 703-535-6356
jharris@shrm.org

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) is the world’s largest association devoted to human resource management. Representing more than 200,000 individual members, the Society's mission is to serve the needs of HR professionals by providing the most essential and comprehensive resources available. As an influential voice, the Society's mission is also to advance the human resource profession to ensure that HR is recognized as an essential partner in developing and executing organizational strategy. Founded in 1948, SHRM currently has more than 550 affiliated chapters and members in more than 100 countries.

Service Sector

The LINE index of service-sector employment expectations forecasts slightly stronger growth for September 2007 (44.2) compared with September 2006 (41.4).

The exempt vacancy index jumped from 7.3 in August 2006 to 28.0 during August 2007 while the non-exempt vacancy index fell from 30.6 in August 2006 to 25.6 during August 2007.

The recruiting difficulty index is well below that of a year ago—12.4 in August 2007 compared with 21.0 in August 2006.

The new-hire compensation index was relatively unchanged from a year ago, dropping slightly to 10.2 in August 2007 from 10.6 in August 2006.

About LINE

This SHRM/Rutgers LINE indicator of employment expectations provides an early snapshot of anticipated U.S. hiring and references the same August period as the report the BLS will release in September. The responses in the LINE survey are weighted using the proportion of total employment represented by the respondent’s industry.

Society for Human Resource Management

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) is the world’s largest association devoted to human resource management. Representing more than 225,000 individual members, the Society’s mission is both to serve human resource management professionals and to advance the profession. Founded in 1948, SHRM currently has more than 576 affiliated chapters within the United States and members in more than 135 countries. Visit SHRM Online at www.shrm.org.

School of Management and Labor Relations at Rutgers

The School of Management and Labor Relations at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, is a leading center of scholarly and applied research on human resource management issues. The school creates and disseminates knowledge that fosters a better understanding of the nature of employment and work in modern society. The Rutgers Master of Human Resource Management degree is one of the top human resource management programs in the nation.

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