SHRM’s LINE Report Predicts Mixed Hiring Trends and Fewer Layoffs

Jan 2, 2014

ALEXANDRIA, Va. — The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) said in its Leading Indicators of National Employment® (LINE) report today that, compared with a year ago, the pace of hiring in the manufacturing sector will decrease and in the service sector will increase, while layoffs will decrease in both sectors.

The SHRM LINE Report, based on a survey of human resource professionals, predicts employment activity for the coming month, about 30 days before statistics on employment are available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to the report findings, hiring will be limited in January with a manufacturing year-over-year hiring rate decrease of 4.5 points and service-sector hiring rate increase of 7.5 points.

Still, a net of 26.7 percent of manufacturers and a net of 28.9 percent of service-sector companies will add jobs in January.

“The somewhat mixed findings in the January LINE report point to a stronger service-sector hiring picture compared with manufacturing,” said Jennifer Schramm, manager of workforce trends at SHRM. “But overall, most economists are predicting improved labor market conditions in 2014.”

A net of 11.7 percent of manufacturing respondents had more difficulty recruiting in December, a decline of 5.5 points from December 2012. A net of 13.4 percent of service-sector HR professionals had more difficulty recruiting, up 11.7 points from a year ago and a four-year high from that sector for the month of December.

“The overall net increase in services’ hiring expectations may be one reason why the sector’s recruiting difficulty index jumped in December,” explained Schramm.

The LINE Report provides a human resource snapshot of month-ahead hiring expectations and examines new-hire compensation, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent and job vacancies. Respondents include HR professionals from over 500 private service-sector companies and 500 manufacturing companies. Together, these sectors employ more than 90 percent of U.S. private-sector workers.

Media: To read the full SHRM LINE Report, visit The Jobs Outlook Report is available at Follow SHRM Research on Twitter @SHRM_Research.

The SHRM LINE Report is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on the first Thursday of each month. The SHRM employment expectations index describes the same time period referenced a month later by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Report.

For more information or an interview with a LINE researcher, contact Vanessa Gray of SHRM Public Affairs at 703-535-6072 or

About the Society for Human Resource Management

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) is the world’s largest association devoted to human resource management. Representing about 260,000 members in more than 140 countries, the Society serves the needs of HR professionals and advances the interests of the HR profession. Founded in 1948, SHRM has more than 575 affiliated chapters within the United States and subsidiary offices in China, India and the United Arab Emirates. Visit SHRM Online at and follow us on Twitter @SHRMPress.


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