Predicting and planning for the future in a complex world requires leaders to embrace new skills around flexibility, open mindedness, responsiveness and curiosity.
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When it comes to the future, the only thing we can be sure of is surprises. Experts in forecasting now say that the window for accurate prediction is no more than 400 days. That applies if you are open-minded and rigorous in reviewing a broad range of information sources, apply probabilities to your conclusions and routinely adjust these in the light of new information. If that isn’t you, the horizon is more like 150 days.
Explore Through Experiments
Preparedness and Responsiveness
Convening and Synthesizing
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