In March, hiring rates will vary compared with a year ago
In March 2017, employment will grow at 59.0 percent of manufacturing firms and decline at 6.5 percent. The resulting net increasing index of 52.41 (59.0 - 6.5) suggests faster employment growth in manufacturing than in March 2016 (42.6).
In March 2017, employment levels will grow at 48.8 percent of service-sector firms and decline at 7.7 percent of firms, producing a net increasing index of 41.1 (48.8 - 7.7), which suggests slower service-sector employment growth than in March 2016 (48.3). The lower employment expectations index for the service sector suggests that in March 2017 U.S. private sector employment growth will be smaller than the 189,002 jobs that were added in March 2016.
The LINE employment expectations index provides an early indication of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report findings. BLS numbers covering the same time period are released approximately one month after the LINE report.
1 Rounded to the nearest decimal place
2 Private-sector employment, one-month change for March 2016, seasonally adjusted. "Employment, Hours, and Earnings", U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, extracted March 6, 2017.
Between February and March 2017, do you expect your organization's employment headcount to increase, remain the same or decrease?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Headcount | Percent Decreasing Headcount | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Mar 2014 | 44.9% | 5.6% | 39.3 |
| Mar 2015 | 53.9% | 9.4% | 44.5 |
| Mar 2016 | 53.0% | 10.4% | 42.6 |
| Mar 2017 | 59.0% | 6.5% | 52.4 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +9.8 |
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Headcount | Percent Decreasing Headcount | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Mar 2014 | 46.1% | 4.5% | 41.6 |
| Mar 2015 | 51.2% | 7.2% | 44.0 |
| Mar 2016 | 55.2% | 6.9% | 48.3 |
| Mar 2017 | 48.8% | 7.7% | 41.1 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | -7.2 |
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: March 2017 SHRM LINE Report
Recruiting Difficulty
In February, recruiting difficulty dropped in both sectors compared with a year agoLINE's recruiting difficulty index measures how difficult it is for firms to recruit candidates to fill the positions of greatest strategic importance to their companies.
Compared with February of last year, in February 2017 the recruiting difficulty index declined by 8.9 points in the manufacturing sector and 8.8 points in the service sector.
Compared with January 2017, have labor market conditions during February 2017 made it more or less difficult to recruit highly qualified individuals to fill those positions that are of the greatest strategic importance to your firm?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Recruiting Difficulty | Percent Decreasing Recruiting Difficulty | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 11.2% | 4.0% | 7.2 |
| Feb 2015 | 29.8% | 3.8% | 26.0 |
| Feb 2016 | 27.2% | 4.0% | 23.2 |
| Feb 2017 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 14.3 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | -8.9 |
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Recruiting Difficulty | Percent Decreasing Recruiting Difficulty | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 10.3 |
| Feb 2015 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.7 |
| Feb 2016 | 30.3% | 9.4% | 20.9 |
| Feb 2017 | 26.7% | 14.6% | 12.1 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | -8.8 |
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: March 2017 SHRM LINE Report
New-Hire Compensation
In February, more employers increased new-hire compensation compared with a year ago
In the manufacturing sector, 18.4 percent of firms reported raising new-hire compensation in February 2017 compared with 14.7 percent in February 2016. Similarly, in the service sector, 15.4 percent of firms reported raising new-hire compensation in February 2017 compared with 11.7 percent in February 2016.
On average, have your new hires in February 2017 received a compensation package (wages plus benefits) that is higher, the same or lower than that received by individuals your firm hired into similar positions during January 2017?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing New-Hire Compensation | Percent Decreasing New-Hire Compensation | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 7.7% | 1.0% | 6.7 |
| Feb 2015 | 13.1% | 1.1% | 12.0 |
| Feb 2016 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 12.0 |
| Feb 2017 | 18.4% | 1.8% | 16.6 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +4.6 |
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing New-Hire Compensation | Percent Decreasing New-Hire Compensation | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 10.5% | 0.5% | 10.0 |
| Feb 2015 | 18.6% | 0.6% | 18.0 |
| Feb 2016 | 11.7% | 1.1% | 10.6 |
| Feb 2017 | 15.4% | 1.0% | 14.4 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +3.8 |
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: March 2017 SHRM LINE Report
Vacant Positions in Exempt Employment
In February, changes in salaried job openings varied compared with a year ago
Vacancies are defined as open positions that employers are actively trying to fill. LINE data cover exempt vacancies, or primarily salaried positions, and nonexempt vacancies, which are mostly hourly jobs. Changes in the number of job vacancies can be one of the earliest indicators of a shift in the balance between labor supply and demand. Typically, exempt employment fluctuates by smaller rates than nonexempt employment during economic downturns and expansions.
In February, a net total of 17.5 percent of manufacturers reported increases in exempt vacancies (25.8 percent reported more vacancies, 8.3 percent reported fewer), up 5.0 points from February 2016. In the service sector, a net total of 6.8 percent1 of respondents reported increases in exempt vacancies in February (17.4 percent reported more vacancies, 10.5 percent reported fewer), down 3.0 points from February 2016.
1 Rounded to the nearest decimal place
Between January 2017 and February 2017, did the number of exempt vacancies at your organization increase, decrease or remain the same?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 11.6 |
| Feb 2015 | 27.8% | 9.3% | 18.5 |
| Feb 2016 | 24.8% | 12.3% | 12.5 |
| Feb 2017 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 17.5 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +5.0 |
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 25.1% | 8.3% | 16.8 |
| Feb 2015 | 22.9% | 14.1% | 8.8 |
| Feb 2016 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 9.8 |
| Feb 2017 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 6.8 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | -3.0 |
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: March 2017 SHRM LINE Report
Vacant Positions in Nonexempt Employment
In February, changes in hourly vacancies were mixed compared with a year agoIn contrast to exempt employment, nonexempt employment typically changes by a greater percentage during economic downturns and expansions.
A net total of 24.5 percent of manufacturing respondents reported that nonexempt vacancies rose in February (37.5 percent reported more vacancies, 13.0 percent reported fewer), an 8.4 point increase from February 2016. In services, a net total of 7.9 percent of respondents reported an increase in nonexempt vacancies in February (28.1 percent reported more vacancies, 20.2 reported fewer), down 4.4 points from a year ago.
HR professionals in both sectors have generally reported increases in job openings within the month of each LINE survey. For every month since September 2009–shortly after the end of the Great Recession–the manufacturing and service sectors have reported a net increase for nonexempt openings.
Between January 2017 and February 2017, did the number of nonexempt vacancies at your organization increase, decrease or remain the same?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 31.8% | 8.8% | 23.0 |
| Feb 2015 | 33.9% | 13.2% | 20.7 |
| Feb 2016 | 29.9% | 13.8% | 16.1 |
| Feb 2017 | 37.5% | 13.0% | 24.5 |
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +8.4 |
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| Feb 2014 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 14.1 |
| Feb 2015 | 40.1% | 13.3% | 26.8 |
| Feb 2016 | 31.4% | 19.1% | 12.3 |
| Feb 2017 | 28.1% | 20.2% | 7.9 |
|---|
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| Annual change (percentage points) | -4.4 |
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: March 2017 SHRM LINE Report
The LINE Report examines four key areas: employers' hiring expectations, new-hire compensation, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent and job vacancies. It is based on a monthly survey of private-sector human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 service-sector companies. Together, these two sectors employ more than 90 percent of the nation's private-sector workers.
InquiriesEvren Esen, SHRM-SCP, director, Workforce Analytics, SHRM:
Evren.Esen@shrm.orgKaren Wessels, researcher, Workforce Analytics, SHRM:
Karen.Wessels@shrm.orgSteven Director, Ph.D., economic advisor for SHRM LINE, Rutgers University:
Steven.Director@Rutgers.edu© 2017 Society for Human Resource Management. Permission is granted to copy this work with appropriate attribution to copyright owners. All content is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a guaranteed outcome. SHRM cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions, or any liability resulting from the use or misuse of any such information.
Need data on what’s really happening in the job market? The SHRM LINE Employment Report covers the service and manufacturing sectors on key areas for recruiting each month. The report includes:
- The only national employment indicator of hiring expectations for the month ahead–released one month earlier than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Report covering the same period.
- The only published index of changes in new-hire compensation.
- The only published measure of recruiting difficulty of highly qualified candidates for the most critical positions.
Do you have your SHRM-CP or SHRM-SCP? Earn up to 20 PDCs by using LINE data to advance your organization. Refer to page 10 of the recertification handbook.
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CONTACTS
For questions on LINE® data please contact SHRM Research at (703) 535-6301 or LINE@shrm.org. Members of the media should contact SHRM Media Affairs at (703) 535-6273, 703-535-6072, or press@shrm.org.