Job Market Review

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JOB MARKET REVIEW for AUGUST 2016

SUMMARY

Hiring rates will be mixed in August compared with a year ago: A net of 46.7 percent of manufacturers and a net of 36.9 percent of service-sector companies will add jobs in August, according to SHRM's Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) report for August 2016. The manufacturing hiring index will rise by 0.3 points and the service index will fall by 7.4 points compared with a year ago.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. labor force added 255,000 jobs in July, and the nation’s unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, unchanged from June. Job growth was strong in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care and social assistance.

Job openings remain at high levels: The most recent BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report showed there were 5.5 million job openings on the last business day of May, down slightly from April. Job openings decreased in May for several industries, with the largest changes coming in wholesale trade (-104,000), other services (-98,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (-53,000).

Recruiting difficulty eased in July, fewer employers raised new-hire compensation: In July, the index for new-hire compensation fell in manufacturing and services compared with a year ago, according to the LINE report. Recruiting difficulty fell slightly in manufacturing and services compared with July 2015, according to the LINE report.

SHRM JOB MARKET DATA AND RESOURCES

GOVERNMENT DATA

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Employment Situation: July 2016
'Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities. Employment in mining continued to trend down.'

Job Openings and Labor Turnover: May 2016 
'Job openings decreased in May to 5.5 million. The job openings rate was 3.7 percent. The number of job openings in May decreased for total private and was little changed for government.'

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: June 2016
'Unemployment rates were lower in June than a year earlier in 285 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 75 areas and unchanged in 27 areas. Eight areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and six areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent.'

Real Earnings: June 2016
'Real average hourly earnings increased 1.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from June 2015 to June 2016. This increase in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 1.2-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.'

U.S. BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Personal Income and Outlays: June 2016
'Personal income increased $29.3 billion (0.2 percent) in June. Disposable personal income increased $24.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures increased $53.0 billion (0.4 percent).'

Gross Domestic Product: Q2 2016, Advance Estimate
'Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent.'

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