Job Market Review

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JOB MARKET REVIEW for OCTOBER 2016

SUMMARY

Hiring rates will fall in October compared with a year ago: A net of 40.4 percent of manufacturers and a net of 41.8 percent of service-sector companies will add jobs in October, according to SHRM's Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) report for October 2016. The manufacturing hiring index will fall by 4.9 points and the service index will fall by 3.5 points compared with a year ago.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. labor force added 156,000 jobs in September, and the nation’s unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent in August. Some of the biggest job gains were in the professional and business services (67,000) and health care sectors (33,000).

Job openings remain at high levels: The most recent BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report showed there were 5.9 million job openings on the last business day of July, an increase of 228,000 from June. Job openings increased in July in professional and business services (+166,000) and durable goods manufacturing (+27,000).

Recruiting difficulty rose in September, fewer employers raised new-hire compensation: In September, the index for new-hire compensation fell in manufacturing and services compared with a year ago, according to the LINE report. Recruiting difficulty also increased in manufacturing and services compared with September 2015, according to the LINE report.

SHRM JOB MARKET DATA AND RESOURCES

GOVERNMENT DATA

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Employment Situation: September 2016
'Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent.'

Job Openings and Labor Turnover: July 2016 
'On the last business day of July, there were 5.9 million job openings. The job openings rate was 3.9 percent. The number of job openings increased over the month for total private and was little changed for government.'

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: August 2016
'Unemployment rates were lower in August than a year earlier in 242 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 123 areas and unchanged in 22 areas. Fourteen areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and three areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent.'

Real Earnings: August 2016
'Real average hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from August 2015 to August 2016. This increase in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.9-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 0.4-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.'

U.S. BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Personal Income and Outlays: August 2016
'Personal income increased $39.3 billion (0.2 percent) in August. Disposable personal income increased $31.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures increased $6.2 billion (less than 0.1 percent).'

Gross Domestic Product: Q2 2016, Third Estimate
'Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent.'

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