Job Market Review

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JOB MARKET REVIEW for SEPTEMBER 2016

SUMMARY

Hiring rates will fall in September compared with a year ago: A net of 40.7 percent of manufacturers and a net of 43.2 percent of service-sector companies will add jobs in September, according to SHRM's Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) report for September 2016. The manufacturing hiring index will fall by 0.5 points and the service index will fall by 5.8 points compared with a year ago.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. labor force added 151,000 jobs in August, and the nation’s unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, unchanged from July. Some of biggest job gains came in food services and drinking places (+34,000), professional and technical services (+20,000), and financial activities (+15,000).

Job openings remain at high levels: The most recent BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report showed there were 5.6 million job openings on the last business day of June, little changed from May. Job openings increased in June in durable goods manufacturing (+37,000) and decreased in federal government (-15,000).

Recruiting difficulty, new-hire compensation results were mixed in August: In August, the index for new-hire compensation fell in manufacturing and rose in services compared with a year ago, according to the LINE report. Recruiting difficulty also fell slightly in manufacturing and increased in services compared with August 2015, according to the LINE report.

SHRM JOB MARKET DATA AND RESOURCES

GOVERNMENT DATA

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Employment Situation: August 2016
'Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries.'

Job Openings and Labor Turnover: June 2016 
'In June, there were 5.6 million job openings. The job openings rate was 3.8 percent. The number of job openings was essentially unchanged for total nonfarm, total private, and government.'

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: July 2016
'Unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 279 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 87 areas and unchanged in 21 areas. Eight areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and five areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent.'

Real Earnings: July 2016
'Real average hourly earnings increased 1.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, from July 2015 to July 2016. This increase in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 1.4-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.'

U.S. BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Personal Income and Outlays: July 2016
'Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.4 percent) in July. Disposable personal income increased $60.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures increased $42.0 billion (0.3 percent).'

Gross Domestic Product: Q2 2016, Second Estimate
'Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent.'

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