Job Market Review

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JOB MARKET REVIEW for JULY 2016

SUMMARY

Hiring rates will be mixed in July compared with a year ago: A net of 48.7 percent of manufacturers and a net of 45.8 percent of service-sector companies will add jobs in July, according to SHRM's Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) report for July 2016. The manufacturing hiring index will rise by 2.8 points and the service index will fall by 4.7 points compared with a year ago.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. labor force added 287,000 jobs in June, and the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent, up from 4.7 percent in May. Job growth was strong in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities.

Job openings remain at high levels: The most recent BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report showed there were 5.8 million job openings on the last business day of April, nearly unchanged from March. Job openings increased in April for several industries, with the largest increases coming in wholesale trade (+65,000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+58,000), and durable goods manufacturing (+46,000).

Recruiting difficulty was varied in June, little movement in new-hire compensation: In June, the index for new-hire compensation fell in manufacturing and services compared with a year ago, according to the LINE report. Recruiting difficulty fell slightly in manufacturing and was virtually unchanged in services compared with June 2015, according to the LINE report.

SHRM JOB MARKET DATA AND RESOURCES

GOVERNMENT DATA

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Employment Situation: June 2016
'The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.9 percent in June, and nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000. In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. Employment also rose in information, largely reflecting the return of workers from a strike.'

Job Openings and Labor Turnover: April 2016
'Job openings were little changed at 5.8 million in April. The job openings rate was 3.9 percent. The number of job openings was little changed in April for total private and for government.'

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: May 2016
'Unemployment rates were lower in May than a year earlier in 333 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 49 areas and unchanged in five areas. Twenty-four areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and two areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent.'

Real Earnings: May 2016
'Real average hourly earnings increased 1.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, from May 2015 to May 2016. This increase in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 1.1-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.'

U.S. BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Personal Income and Outlays: May 2016
'Wages and salaries increased $14.7 billion in May, compared with an increase of $40.4 billion in April. Private wages and salaries increased $11.8 billion, compared with an increase of $38.7 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $2.9 billion, compared with an increase of $1.6 billion.'

Gross Domestic Product: Q1 2016, Third Estimate
'Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.'

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