The LINE employment expectations index provides an early indication of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report findings. BLS numbers covering the same time period are released approximately one month after the LINE report.
Between June and July 2017, do you expect your organization's employment headcount to increase, remain the same or decrease?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Headcount | Percent Decreasing Headcount | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| July 2014 | 58.0%
| 4.8%
| 53.2
|
| July 2015 | 56.15% | 10.2%
| 45.9
|
| July 2016 | 56.9% | 8.2%
| 48.7
|
| July 2017 | 64.0%
| 6.0%
| 58.0
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points)
| +9.3
|
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Headcount | Percent Decreasing Headcount | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| July 2014 | 54.4% | 5.2%
| 49.2
|
| July 2015 | 55.8% | 5.3%
| 50.5
|
| July 2016 | 51.5% | 5.7%
| 45.8
|
| July 2017 | 57.4% | 8.5%
| 48.8
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +3.0
|
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: July 2017 SHRM LINE Report
Recruiting Difficulty
In June, recruiting difficulty increased compared with a year agoLINE's recruiting difficulty index measures how difficult it is for firms to recruit candidates to fill the positions of greatest strategic importance to their companies.
Compared with June of last year, in June 2017 the recruiting difficulty index rose by 5.9 points in the manufacturing sector and 7.9 points in the service sector. The LINE new-hire compensation index reported below suggests firms may be responding to this increased recruiting difficulty by increasing starting wages to attract highly qualified individuals to fill key positions.
Compared with May 2017, have labor market conditions during June 2017 made it more or less difficult to recruit highly qualified individuals to fill those positions that are of the greatest strategic importance to your firm?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Recruiting Difficulty | Percent Decreasing Recruiting Difficulty | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 29.5% | 3.6%
| 25.9
|
| June 2015 | 38.1% | 4.4%
| 33.7
|
| June 2016 | 33.4%
| 2.6%
| 30.8
|
| June 2017 | 39.4% | 2.7% | 36.7
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +5.9
|
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Recruiting Difficulty | Percent Decreasing Recruiting Difficulty | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 21.6% | 2.3% | 19.3
|
| June 2015 | 33.7% | 6.2%
| 27.5
|
| June 2016 | 32.9% | 4.8% | 28.1
|
June 2017
| 39.5%
| 3.5% | 36.0
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +7.9
|
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: July 2017 SHRM LINE Report
New-Hire Compensation
In June, new-hire compensation packages were higher than those offered a year ago
In the manufacturing sector, 19.6 percent of firms reported raising new-hire compensation in June 2017 compared with 15.6 percent in June 2016. In the service sector, 21.5 percent of firms reported raising new-hire compensation in June 2017 compared with 16.8 percent in June 2016, with the annual net increase of 8.9 points.
On average, have your new hires in June 2017 received a compensation package (wages plus benefits) that is higher, the same or lower than that received by individuals your firm hired into similar positions during May 2017?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing New-Hire Compensation | Percent Decreasing New-Hire Compensation | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 11.6% | 0.7% | 10.9
|
| June 2015 | 17.1% | 1.8%
| 15.3
|
| June 2016 | 15.6% | 1.8%
| 13.8
|
| June 2017 | 19.6% | 1.3% | 18.3
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +4.5
|
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing New-Hire Compensation | Percent Decreasing New-Hire Compensation | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 13.2%
| 0.7%
| 12.5
|
| June 2015 | 15.7% | 1.6% | 14.1
|
| June 2016 | 16.8% | 5.0%
| 11.8
|
| June 2017 | 21.5% | 0.8%
| 20.7
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | +8.9
|
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: July 2017 SHRM LINE Report
Vacant Positions in Exempt Employment
In June, there were fewer salaried job openings compared with a year ago
Vacancies are defined as open positions that employers are actively trying to fill. LINE data cover exempt vacancies, or primarily salaried positions, and nonexempt vacancies, which are mostly hourly jobs. Changes in the number of job vacancies can be one of the earliest indicators of a shift in the balance between labor supply and demand. Typically, exempt employment fluctuates by smaller rates than nonexempt employment during economic downturns and expansions.
In June, a net total of 12.3 percent of manufacturers reported increases in exempt vacancies (22.9 percent reported more vacancies, 10.6 percent reported fewer), down 0.6 points from June 2016. In the service sector, a net total of 10.4 percent of respondents reported increases in exempt vacancies in June (22.4 percent reported more vacancies, 12.0 percent reported fewer), down 5.2 points from June 2016.
Between May 2017 and June 2017, did the number of exempt vacancies at your organization increase, decrease or remain the same?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 30.9% | 8.8%
| 22.1
|
| June 2015 | 29.3% | 13.2% | 16.1
|
| June 2016 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 12.9
|
| June 2017 | 22.9% | 10.6%
| 12.3
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points)
| -0.6
|
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 32.5% | 8.6% | 23.9
|
| June 2015 | 26.3% | 12.1% | 14.2
|
| June 2016 | 22.7% | 7.1% | 15.6
|
| June 2017 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 10.4
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | -5.2
|
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: July 2017 SHRM LINE Report
Vacant Positions in Nonexempt Employment
In June, hourly vacancies decreased compared with a year agoIn contrast to exempt employment, nonexempt employment typically changes by a greater percentage during economic downturns and expansions.
A net total of 27.3 percent of manufacturing respondents reported that nonexempt vacancies rose in June (44.2 percent reported more vacancies, 17.0 percent reported fewer), a 3.9 point decrease from June 2016. In services, a net total of 14.3 percent of respondents reported an increase in nonexempt vacancies in June (33.0 percent reported more vacancies, 18.7 reported fewer), down 10.6 points from a year ago.
HR professionals in both sectors have generally reported increases in job openings within the month of each LINE survey. For every month since September 2009–shortly after the end of the Great Recession–the manufacturing and service sectors have reported a net increase for nonexempt openings.
Between May 2017 and June 2017, did the number of nonexempt vacancies at your organization increase, decrease or remain the same?
MANUFACTURING SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 40.1% | 12.0% | 28.1
|
| June 2015 | 40.8% | 12.0% | 28.8
|
| June 2016 | 41.7% | 10.5% | 31.2
|
| June 2017 | 44.2% | 17.0%
| 27.3
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | -3.9
|
|---|
| SERVICE SECTOR BY YEAR |
|---|
| Month / Year | Percent Increasing Vacancies | Percent Decreasing Vacancies | Net Increasing (Percentage Points) |
| June 2014 | 47.7% | 10.7% | 37.0
|
| June 2015 | 35.7% | 13.4% | 22.3
|
| June 2016 | 36.7% | 11.8% | 24.9
|
| June 2017 | 33.0% | 18.7% | 14.3
|
|---|
|
| Annual change (percentage points) | -10.6
|
|---|
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.
Source: July 2017 SHRM LINE Report
The LINE Report examines four key areas: employers' hiring expectations, new-hire compensation, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent and job vacancies. It is based on a monthly survey of private-sector human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 service-sector companies. Together, these two sectors employ more than 90 percent of the nation's private-sector workers.
InquiriesEvren Esen, SHRM-SCP, director, Workforce Analytics, SHRM:
Evren.Esen@shrm.orgKaren Wessels, researcher, Workforce Analytics, SHRM:
Karen.Wessels@shrm.org© 2017 Society for Human Resource Management. Permission is granted to copy this work with appropriate attribution to copyright owners. All content is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a guaranteed outcome. SHRM cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions, or any liability resulting from the use or misuse of any such information.
Need data on what’s really happening in the job market? The SHRM LINE Employment Report covers the service and manufacturing sectors on key areas for recruiting each month. The report includes:
- The only national employment indicator of hiring expectations for the month ahead–released one month earlier than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Report covering the same period.
- The only published index of changes in new-hire compensation.
- The only published measure of recruiting difficulty of highly qualified candidates for the most critical positions.
Do you have your SHRM-CP or SHRM-SCP? Earn up to 20 PDCs by using LINE data to advance your organization. Refer to page 10 of the recertification handbook.
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CONTACTS
For questions on LINE® data please contact SHRM Research at (703) 535-6301 or LINE@shrm.org. Members of the media should contact SHRM Media Affairs at (703) 535-6273, (703)-535-6072 or press@shrm.org.