Providing Resilient Leadership in an Era of Global Uncertainty

In late 2023, voters in Argentina elected Javier Milei as their new president, with widespread economic consequences. Milei’s plans to devalue the Argentine peso by 50%, cancel public works projects, and cut energy and transportation subsidies led to labor strikes and economic upheaval in South America’s second-largest economy. This kind of sudden, sharp political upheaval is far from isolated, and in an interconnected global economy, these effects can be felt beyond any one country’s borders.

During 2024, at least 64 countries are holding elections, with half the world’s population casting ballots, according to the Election Year Impact Study from Everstream Analytics. All these elections bring with them the possibility of disruptive consequences for supply chains and geopolitical relations, which means that business leaders increasingly need a global mindset to evaluate their risk exposure.

“These are the sorts of changes that can rapidly disrupt plans of global organizations,” says Sam Adeyemi, Ph.D., a global speaker, strategic leadership expert, minister, and author. “They can kill businesses and careers for those who are not prepared. When you study strategic leadership and strategic foresight, you realize why organizations need to be planning for these kinds of disruptions: because the data shows that things are more likely to change than they are to likely remain the same.”

Beyond elections, today’s organizations must be prepared for a wide range of threats, including geopolitical tensions, pandemics, supply chain challenges, climate change, and natural disasters. These and many others can potentially have negative impacts on employee safety, transportation, supply chains, inflation, and more.

Austin, Texas-based AlertMedia employs a team of experienced analysts who monitor the world 24/7 to help customers such as JetBlue, Kohl’s, and Qualtrics identify and respond to emerging risks. Their research shows that threats are trending upward in both frequency and severity, from disruptive AI technology to billion-dollar natural disasters to the deadly escalation of geopolitical conflicts, says Sara Pratley, Senior Vice President of global intelligence at AlertMedia.

“Never in modern history have organizations faced the volume and diversity of threats we are experiencing today,” Pratley says. “More than ever, it’s critical for leaders to take a proactive posture in how they prepare for, monitor, and respond to emerging risks and critical events. In a crisis, it’s a given there will be confusion and complexity, which is why it’s so important that leaders prioritize having a plan and clarity concerning roles and responsibilities long before the crisis arrives.”

Expect a Climate of Change

To guide organizations effectively into the future, leaders must start with an expectation of ongoing change. “The world is both less and more unpredictable than one might think,” says Eric McNulty, associate director of the National Preparedness Leadership Initiative at Harvard University, where he has extensive experience working with leaders facing turbulence and uncertainty. He is also the co-author of You’re It: Crisis, Change, and How to Lead When It Matters Most (PublicAffairs, 2019).

Leaders can expect four global trends to shape the macro environment for business in the coming years, McNulty says:

• Climate change and extreme weather.
• Aging populations with concentrated wealth in the Global North and a concentration of youth and poverty in the Global South.
• Rapid global urbanization, particularly in the Global South.
• Greater interconnectedness through travel, trade, and technology.

These four trends “make the broad strokes of the future predictable,” McNulty says, resulting in forced migration, geopolitical conflict, increased vulnerability to infectious disease outbreaks, social stress, and more. At some point, these four global trends will disrupt every business.

“What is unpredictable is exactly when, where, and how disruption will erupt,” McNulty says. “Thus, leaders need to be adept at imagining multiple futures. Say goodbye to static strategic planning in which a certain level of stability is assumed. Ask probing questions and be open to unexpected answers. It calls for leaders who are both humble and intensely curious.”

An expectation of change means that leaders are aware of global disruptions and able to adopt a global perspective, including developing strategies for dealing with sudden changes that might be caused by those disruptions. That includes scenario planning to consider how disruptions might affect your organization—and make appropriate adjustments. Preparing for potential scenarios might include diversifying supply chains, markets, or operations to reduce dependency on any particular region.

The right people are crucial for successfully carrying organizations through disruptions and shifts, so leaders must also prioritize their teams’ development, fostering both innovation and wellness. “Be aware of the impact and stress these changes create for the people in your organization, and prioritize their well-being,” Adeyemi says. “The more we encourage and reward innovation within our organizations, the more we can withstand disruptions and come through them stronger.”

Develop Leadership Skills for an Uncertain Future

The risky, global business environment in which we operate doesn’t just present challenges; it also presents great opportunities for organizations, McNulty says. Solutions to the challenges require new technologies as well as “old-fashioned relationship building,” he says. It’s an opportunity for leaders to develop and refine valuable skills that will pave their organizations’ way to the future.

Leaders will need skills that are not currently in most development plans, such as:

• Scenario planning. Successful leaders must be able to—and take the time to—imagine and plan for multiple futures based on the risks facing them. When a crisis comes, and we can expect that they will continue to come, a leader needs to be a stabilizing force who can provide clear direction, ensure safety, and restore operations, according to AlertMedia’s Pratley. Leaders will be much more equipped to be that stabilizing force if they have done the work in advance to be prepared for the unexpected. 
• Decision science. The ability to make solid decisions, especially amid significant ambiguity, is critical for leaders managing through crises. “In an unstable world, leaders high on decisive action are going to be in demand,” says Lucas Botzen, chief executive of Amsterdam-based Rivermate, which helps clients hire remote workers in more than 135 countries with a global payroll, benefits, and compliance platform. “Decisiveness is important in time of crisis because timely, well-planned decisions made by managers can drastically affect the outcome.”
• Leading in community. “We tend to conceive of leaders as individuals,” McNulty says. “However, when the problem is too complex for any one individual to grasp, it requires the collective intelligence of people working together.”
• Fortunately, humans are a social species wired to collaborate. “To meet this challenging future, we are going to need to overcome our trained default thinking as competitors to tap into our instinctual ability to cooperate,” McNulty says.
• Mental toughness. An uncertain future will require leaders who remain focused, confident and optimistic in the face of adversity, says Carolina Caro, founder and CEO of Conscious Leadership Partners, a leadership consultancy in Pasadena, Calif. “Identifying and shifting from a fixed to a growth mindset, which involves embracing effort, challenges, mistakes and feedback, will be key,” she says. “Executives need to heighten the grit and the critical thinking skills of their people by investing in developing these skills. It’s not always seen as a priority because we tend to deal with crisis when it arises, but those who do prepare will have a major competitive advantage.”
• Prioritizing people. Leaders need emotional intelligence and empathy to understand and respond to the emotions and needs of the people within their organizations while responding to disruption. “Crises can also be powerful moments to practice soft skills and demonstrate to employees that the organization is prepared to navigate difficult moments while keeping teams’ physical and psychological safety front and center,” Pratley says. “As we’ve seen time and again, organizations that respond effectively during crises engender lasting trust with employees, customers, and partners. Those who do not meet the moment often suffer impacts ranging from financial losses and reputational damage to employee turnover.”

Build Organizational Resilience

Because global change and disruption is ongoing, organizational leaders can no longer view crisis response as an occasional thing. Instead, resilience must become part of organizational culture to ensure readiness for whatever comes next.  

“Fostering a culture of continuous learning and innovation is crucial for emergency preparedness and resiliency,” says Andrea Davis, founder and CEO of The Resiliency Initiative, a crisis management consulting firm headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif. “Encouraging employees to adapt and innovate enhances the organization’s ability to respond swiftly and effectively to crises.”

Leaders can help build that culture by investing in training programs that focus on emergency response skills and future challenges, promoting a mindset of adaptability and problem-solving, and incentivizing creative solutions to unforeseen issues. Also, by supporting employees’ physical and mental health, providing opportunities for professional growth, and fostering a supportive work environment, leaders can improve morale, productivity, and retention, Davis says. As a result, a culture built on resilience and collaboration will contribute to organizational stability and preparedness when emergencies and disruptions occur.

“Leaders can build resilience into their organizations by using the language of ‘we’ to stimulate more cooperative behavior,” McNulty says. “They can recognize and reward experimentation and learning from failure. They should normalize change as constant adaptation rather than an episodic event: evolution versus revolution.”

Resilience isn’t just cultural; a resilient organization also needs robust crisis and contingency plans, created by identifying potential risks and developing clear protocols and responses to mitigate them. The plans should be regularly updated and tested to make sure they remain effective in various scenarios.

To prepare for the next inevitable crisis or disruption, Davis recommends implementing the following action steps.

• Conduct comprehensive risk assessments. This requires leaders to identify and analyze potential geopolitical risks, such as conflicts, trade restrictions, and diplomatic tensions, as well as economic risks, including currency fluctuations, inflation rates, and financial market volatility. It also involves staying informed about regulatory changes and potential new legislation that could impact operations.
• Develop crisis management, business continuity, and disaster recovery plans. These plans should include plans for how and when employees will be notified before, during, and after a crisis. They should also outline specific actions to take in various disruption scenarios, detailing critical functions and defining recovery time objectives. The plans should include opportunities to rely on capable third-party vendors, as well as system backups and alternative ways of working in case a system goes down. To ensure the company’s readiness, conduct regular drills and simulations.
• Diversify supply chains. Build resilience by sourcing materials and products from multiple suppliers across different regions to reduce dependency on any single source. If possible, develop local supply chains to minimize the impact of international disturbances. Also, establish alternative logistics and transportation routes to ensure continuity in case of disruptions.
• Implement flexible financial strategies. Maintain a strong cash flow and liquidity position to absorb economic shocks. Hedge against currency risks by using financial instruments such as forward contracts and options. Create contingency budgets to manage unexpected costs arising from economic instability.
• Enhance regulatory compliance. Keep track of and anticipate changes in trade agreements, environmental regulations, and labor laws. Engage with industry associations and regulatory bodies to stay ahead of upcoming changes. Develop internal policies and training programs to ensure compliance with any new regulations.
• Leverage technology and innovation. Invest in digital transformation initiatives to improve operational efficiency and agility. Look for ways to use data analytics and AI to predict and respond to market changes and disruptions.
• Foster strong stakeholder relationships. Build and maintain robust relationships with key suppliers, customers, and industry partners. To do that, engage in regular communication with stakeholders to understand their needs and concerns, connect with local first responders, and collaborate with other businesses and organizations to share resources and best practices during crises.

When it comes to planning for and responding to crises, leaders should focus on order rather than control, McNulty says. “Clear and consistent values and core operating principles can create order while offering great freedom to sense and respond to changing circumstances,” he explains. “Rules-based efforts to control what can’t be controlled only yields chaos and dysfunction.”

Face the Future with Confidence

Yes, organizations are operating in a world they can’t control, faced with high-stakes changes in climate, government, and society. But rather than pretending the challenges don’t exist or won’t affect your organization, the best leaders will seek out information about potential threats and prepare for uncertainty so they can face the future with confidence in the resilience of their organizations and their people.

“The companies best positioned to navigate an increasingly volatile threat landscape are those that are vigilant about understanding what is happening, where, and who is impacted so they can act quickly to protect their people and organizations, no matter the situation,” Pratley says. In addition to regularly assessing your risk profile, it’s a good idea to revisit past emergencies and crises for perspective.

For example, taking time to break down your organization’s response to the pandemic may better position you for future disruptions. Maybe your organization mastered a quick transition to operating remotely, but struggled with supply chain issues due to overdependence on suppliers in a particular geographical area. That insight can guide your preparation for the future.

Finally, the people on your team will be critical for carrying out your crisis and contingency plans, so it’s important to make sure they are informed and prepared. Pratley recommends conducting regular, comprehensive training focused on your plans and including employees in safety conversations, taking their feedback seriously.

Despite the serious nature of today’s threat landscape, leaders who develop the right skills and focus on building organizational resilience can rest assured, knowing that their organizations have the stamina to face and power through whatever challenge may come next.