Chaos Isn’t Going Anywhere. Leaders Need to Embrace It.

Institute for the Future Distinguished Fellow Bob Johansen recently appeared on SHRM's Tomorrowist podcast. A summary of that conversation appears below.

The Black American folk hero John Henry’s legendary battle against machines provides important lessons on embracing the future. While this story is often used to illustrate how to embrace our artificial intelligence-fueled future, it might not be useful for leaders of enterprise and midsize businesses as AI will enhance, rather than replace, human intelligence, says Bob Johansen, distinguished fellow from the Institute for the Future. Speaking on the Tomorrowist podcast, Johansen outlines specific action steps leaders can take to be ready for the augmented work of tomorrow.

Johansen, the author of 12 books including Office Shock, says the term “artificial intelligence” is partially to blame for our confusion, as it contributes to misconceptions about technology. “Artificial intelligence is the worst term to describe an emerging technology that I’ve ever studied, because it leads you down the path of ‘Terminator’ scenarios and computers replacing humans.” He argues we should develop new language to accurately discuss these advancements, particularly ones in generative AI (GenAI). The advancements are profoundly important but are currently lacking in appropriate descriptive terminology—which could cost us.

The VUCA and BANI World, or Chaos World, Isn’t Ending Soon

CEOs crave an end to what they perceive as transitory chaos and technological change, but Johansen says this “VUCA world” isn’t ending soon, so it’s time to buckle up and embrace it. “VUCA,” a term originally coined at the U.S. Army War College, stands for “volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous,” but Johansen says it’s no longer sufficient to describe the current and future state of the world. Now, futurists use the term “BANI,” for “brittle, anxious, nonlinear, and incomprehensible.” “It isn’t just complicated anymore. It’s really chaotic, and we’ve got to, first of all, set our expectations about what we can do, and what we can’t do,” Johansen says. He emphasizes the need for leaders to adopt a mindset of clarity and flexibility, a principle the military calls “commander’s intent.” Johansen says that even though the specific plan or journey may remain unclear, certainty is important. “If you’re in this highly uncertain, chaotic world, you want to be very clear where you’re going.”

And what’s the best way to envision where you’re going? Johansen advocates for a future-back approach to leadership vision, which involves looking 10 or more years ahead, then thinking backwards from that future state of mind. It sounds simple, but breaking traditional thinking allows leaders to make key observations. “It’s actually easier if you go 10 or more years out. Depending on the topic, you can see the patterns of change, even in a chaotic world.” This approach allows leaders to choose which waves of change they want to ride and which ones to avoid.

GenAI Enables Augmented Leadership

Leaders can envision, at least to some degree, a future where robots take over hard jobs, but what’s often lost is how leadership will change. Johansen highlights the necessity of embracing augmented intelligence. He points out that the next decade will be crucial for leaders to integrate GenAI into their practices. “The big story of the next decade is not computers replacing people,” says Johansen. “The big story is people and computers doing things together in partnership that have never been done before.” For example, Johansen himself uses a GenAI tool he nicknamed “Stretch” to enhance his writing and thinking processes. It challenges him and pushes back against his thinking.

Because AI is great at pattern recognition, leaders may use it to challenge what they believe are unique or innovative ideas. If an AI tool can develop the same idea, based on patterns it has observed, perhaps the idea isn’t all that unique.

Can GenAI Make Things Simpler?

Johansen says there is a potential future where GenAI alleviates the chaos of a VUCA or BANI world. For example, it could sift through mountains of data, revealing previously undetected trends such as precise turnover costs in an organization, specific sources of cash burn, or verifiable web trends responsible for an increase or decrease in traffic. But Johansen cautions that there are risks, particularly if leaders do not truly grasp the underlying concepts and models. “It’s dangerous if you don’t know what a standard deviation is,” he says.

Understanding the underlying models is important as we embrace “calm technology,” or technology that operates in the background without a second thought. The augmented workforce will allow greater productivity and limit overwhelming users. Johansen explains the importance of using technology to rehumanize and enchant the world, rather than automate it.

Tomorrow’s Workplace

Johansen envisions a future where technology seamlessly integrates into the workplace, making complex tasks simpler and enabling more creative and collaborative work environments. Perhaps our workplace will resemble a creative agency versus a row of employees typing in cubicles. “We’re moving toward more shape shifting, more orchestrated ways of working,” he explains.

In this flexible and collaborative future, dilemmas will be common. Clear answers won’t always be readily available, which means CEOs need to face a new future. “Leaders have to be extremely clear, but also extremely flexible in how we get to that future. And inevitably there, they will be augmented.”