Overview
The Hiring Difficulty and Retention Difficulty Indexes, introduced in Q3 2024, measure retention and hiring difficulty based on HR executives’ responses to paired questions about the difficulty of hiring and retaining employees over the past 12 months and the next 12 months.
The chief goal of these indexes is to capture and track the degree of hiring and retention difficulty that employers have faced in the near past and expect to face in the near future; broadly speaking, increasingly positive index values indicate that responses are more concentrated in the “high” category, whereas increasingly negative index values indicate that responses are more concentrated in the “low” category. A value near zero indicates that many respondents are selecting “average” or that the shares of respondents selecting “high” and “low” are similar, or a combination of both.
Insights from the CHRO Hiring Difficulty Index: Recruitment Challenges Intensify as Expectations of Future Difficulty Grow
While the experienced and expected hiring difficulty indexes have fluctuated around a relatively narrow range (-0.3 to 3) throughout 2025 and early 2026, the latest results from Q2 2026 mark a significant escalation in hiring difficulty. Over the last quarter, the experienced hiring difficulty index rose from 1.4 to 3.9, and the expected hiring difficulty index jumped from 2.1 to 4.8. Both indexes have now reached their highest levels since Q4 2024, indicating that organizations are facing greater challenges than at any point in the last 18 months.
The observed trend over the first half of 2026 could be driven by multiple factors: While ongoing economic uncertainty may have contributed to the rising expectation that hiring will become more difficult over the next 12 months, an increase in experienced hiring difficulty in 2026 suggests that organizations continue to struggle with attracting and securing qualified talent.
resource
SHRM Foundation Skills First Specialty Credential
Broaden your talent pipeline. Traditional hiring approaches may overlook strong candidates. This credential helps you implement skills-based hiring, unlocking access to untapped talent pools and supporting more equitable, effective workforce strategies.
Resource
Talent Acquisition Specialty Credential
Stay ahead in a competitive market. As talent shortages continue to challenge organizations, this credential empowers you with advanced sourcing, assessment, and selection strategies — helping you attract high-quality candidates even when the talent pool is limited.
Insights from the CHRO Retention Difficulty Index: Retention Difficulty Rebounds in Q2 2026
After a notable decline in retention difficulty at the start of 2026, the latest Q2 2026 survey results indicate a rebound in both experienced and expected retention difficulty. Although both indexes remain negative, implying below-average retention challenges, this uptick suggests that HR leaders are increasingly concerned about their ability to retain talent.
While the uncertain economic outlook continues to influence how HR executives interpret labor market conditions, contributing to heightened sensitivity around employee retention, expectations that total rewards budgets will increase are falling, as noted in the Q2 2026 CHRO Employment Outlook, implying that HR leaders anticipate greater difficulty in maintaining competitive benefits and rewards packages. This combination of economic uncertainty and constrained compensation strategies may further complicate efforts to retain key talent in the coming months.
Enterprise Solution
PMQ+
Empower your managers to retain top talent. Retention challenges often stem from day-to-day management. PMQ gives people leaders practical tools to build engagement, foster growth, and reduce turnover — addressing a core driver of retention difficulty.
Methodology
The CHRO Outlook survey is a research study conducted quarterly. The survey was fielded electronically using the SHRM Voice of Work Research Panel to U.S.-based HR executives and senior HR executives (VP+). Respondents represented organizations of all sizes across multiple industries.
| Quarter | Sample Size (n) | Fielding Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | n = 339 | July 17-25, 2024 |
| Q4 2024 | n = 320 | Oct. 16-25, 2024 |
| Q1 2025 | n = 323 | Jan. 13-21, 2025 |
| Q2 2025 | n = 353 | April 8-20, 2025 |
| Q3 2025 | n = 307 | July 9-21, 2025 |
| Q4 2025 | n = 262 | Oct. 14-24, 2025 |
| Q1 2026 | n = 276 | Jan. 13-31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 | n = 258 | Apr. 14-30, 2026 |
Read the Q2 2026 series:
CHRO Employment Outlook | CHRO Economic Outlook | SHRM Hiring and Retention Difficulty Indexes