Overview
The Hiring Difficulty and Retention Difficulty Indexes, introduced in Q3 2024, measure retention and hiring difficulty based on HR executives’ responses to paired questions about the difficulty of hiring and retaining employees over the past 12 months and the next 12 months.
The chief goal of these indexes is to capture and track the degree of hiring and retention difficulty that employers have faced in the near past and expect to face in the near future; broadly speaking, increasingly positive index values indicate that responses are more concentrated in the “high” category, whereas increasingly negative index values indicates that responses are more concentrated in the “low” category. A value near zero indicates that many respondents are selecting “average”, that the shares of respondents selecting “high” and “low” are similar, or a combination of both.
Insights from the CHRO Hiring Difficulty Index: Recruitment Challenges Remain Stable, Expectations of Future Difficulty Rebound
The short history of these indexes makes it difficult to objectively assess what “typical” values look like, but our data through the first quarter of 2026 suggest that hiring difficulty — both experienced (prior 12 months) and expected (next 12 months) — have moved around in a relatively narrow range (-0.3 to 3) since Q1 2025. Expected hiring difficulty over the next 12 months has been particularly up and down, with alternating falls and rises in difficulty in each successive wave of the survey. In Q1 2026, the expected hiring difficulty index rose from 1.2 to 2.1. One possible explanation is that overall economic conditions have been highly dynamic and uncertain, causing HR executives’ labor market expectations to adjust accordingly.
In contrast, our data indicate that experienced hiring difficulty in the last 12 months fell notably from Q2 2025 through Q4 2025 before recovering a significant chunk of those losses in Q1 2026. The persistent difficulties that many organizations face in the hiring process likely reflects a host of factors, with a common complaint being that many applicants lack the necessary qualifications.
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Insights from the CHRO Retention Difficulty Index: Retention Difficulty Plummets in Q1 2026
One of the most noteworthy report findings is the steep decline observed in both experienced and expected retention difficulty between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Both index values are currently negative and at their lowest levels ever recorded, strongly suggesting that retention challenges have declined notably to start 2026.
This finding aligns closely with recent data indicating that retention challenges have eased:
- Falling job openings and rising unemployment have made the labor market significantly less attractive for people considering switching jobs. This often puts downward pressure on voluntary separations.
- A notable decline in the BLS JOLTS quits rate.
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Methodology
The CHRO Outlook survey is a research study conducted quarterly. The survey was fielded electronically using the SHRM Voice of Work Research Panel to U.S.-based HR executives and senior HR executives (VP+). Respondents represented organizations of all sizes across multiple industries.
| Quarter | Sample Size (n) | Fielding Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | n = 339 | July 17-25, 2024 |
| Q4 2024 | n = 320 | Oct. 16-25, 2024 |
| Q1 2025 | n = 323 | Jan. 13-21, 2025 |
| Q2 2025 | n = 353 | April 8-20, 2025 |
| Q3 2025 | n = 307 | July 9-21, 2025 |
| Q4 2025 | n = 262 | Oct. 14-24, 2025 |
| Q1 2026 | n = 276 | Jan. 13-31, 2026 |
Read the Q1 2026 series:
CHRO Employment Outlook | CHRO Economic Outlook | SHRM Hiring and Retention Difficulty Indexes