Overview
The Hiring and Retention Difficulty Indexes, introduced in Q3 2024, measure retention and hiring difficulty based on HR executives’ responses to paired questions about the difficulty of hiring and retaining employees over the prior 12 months and the next 12 months.
The chief goal of these indexes is to capture and track the degree of hiring and retention difficulty that employers have faced in the near past and expect to face in the near future; broadly speaking, increasingly positive index values indicate that responses are more concentrated in the “high” category, whereas increasingly negative index values indicate that responses are more concentrated in the “low” category. A value near zero indicates that many respondents are selecting “average” or that the shares of respondents selecting “high” and “low” are similar — or a combination of both.
Insights from the CHRO Hiring Difficulty Index: Recruitment Challenges Remain Stable as Expectations of Future Difficulty Decrease
Although we continue to have limited historical data to provide context for what “typical” values look like for these indexes, our Q4 2025 findings show that average hiring difficulty over the prior 12-month period has declined since Q3 2025, continuing a general downward trend that started after Q4 2024. This is consistent with traditional labor market data, which increasingly points to weaker labor market conditions.
Softening labor market conditions have also likely driven the drop in our index for hiring difficulty over the next 12-month period observed in Q4 2025. Growing evidence of significant slack in many parts of the labor market and broader concerns about the overall health of the economy have likely dampened anxiety about hiring difficulty.
Two potential explanations for the expected decline in future hiring difficulty:
- An organization’s existing workers are less likely to voluntarily quit (reducing the need to hire new workers).
- Many organizations looking to hire are now more likely to face less competition and more available talent.
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Insights from the CHRO Retention Difficulty Index: Expected Retention Difficulty in the Next 12 Months Rises for the First Time Since Q4 2024
Although experienced and expected hiring difficulty both fell between Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, our index results for retention difficulty were a mixed bag.
On the one hand, our index for retention difficulty during the prior 12-month period rose somewhat in Q4 2025, suggesting that organizations have been facing slightly greater challenges (on average) retaining workers relative to Q3 2025. However, it should also be noted that our index for retention difficulty during the prior 12-month period has consistently been between 0 and -1.6 in the six quarters for which data are available. This is a much narrower range than what we have observed for the other indexes tracked and may indicate that the attitudes of HR leaders about retention difficulty in the prior 12-month period haven’t shifted much since data collection began in Q3 2024.
On the other hand, our index for expected retention difficulty over the next 12-month period ticked down slightly in Q4 2025. This is consistent with the recent softening observed in the labor market, which we would expect to increase the ease of retention by reducing the number and quality of outside employment opportunities for workers. Having said this, the decline observed between Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 is quite mild.
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Methodology
The CHRO Business Outlook survey is a research study conducted quarterly. The survey was fielded electronically using the SHRM Voice of Work Research Panel to U.S.-based HR executives and senior HR executives (VP+). Respondents represented organizations of all sizes across multiple industries.
| Quarter | Sample Size (n) | Fielding Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | n = 339 | July 17-25, 2024 |
| Q4 2024 | n = 320 | Oct. 16-25, 2024 |
| Q1 2025 | n = 323 | Jan. 13-21, 2025 |
| Q2 2025 | n = 353 | April 8-20, 2025 |
| Q3 2025 | n = 307 | July 9-21, 2025 |
| Q4 2025 | n = 262 | Oct. 14-24, 2025 |
Read the Q4 2025 series:
CHRO Employment Outlook | CHRO Economic Outlook | SHRM Hiring and Retention Difficulty Indexes