Report: Geopolitical Tensions Among 2024 Security Concerns

Global unrest will be a significant security concern in 2024, contributing to employee anxiety, according to a new report from International SOS.

The risk management organization, with headquarters in London and Singapore, assesses work-related risks, advises employers on risk prevention and designs programs to protect employees.

"Organizations will have many risks to address in 2024, as instability continues to be a key theme of the global security environment," said Sally Llewellyn, global security director at International SOS, in a statement about the findings.

The 2024 Risk Outlook report addresses what International SOS calls "the global perma-crisis"—the ongoing series of tumultuous events such as the pandemic, potential economic recession, war and even the effects of climate change—and its impact on organizations, including what International SOS deems "concerning levels of employee burnout." 

[SHRM members-only resource: Memo: Support Available to Employees During International Conflict] 

Seventy percent of respondents to the International SOS survey indicated they are extending support to workers' families in times of need. 

"Crisis management teams have been running consistently since COVID," Llewellyn said, "creating a real risk of burnout in this critical function."

In fact, 80 percent of the 675 global senior risk professionals surveyed predicted that burnout will have a significant impact on business in the new year. The report noted that organizations have already experienced "a noticeable surge" in stress-related absences.

The survey is accompanied by interpretations and predictions from the Workforce Resilience Council, which is made up of representative experts in health, security and safety fields from various think tanks, associations, advisory boards, and nongovernmental and intergovernmental organizations.

Biggest Security Concerns

Changes in global weather and climate patterns and their effect on organizational health and security plans are the top risk organizations must address in 2024, International SOS found. Rising temperatures, for example, increase the likelihood that diseases will spread. One in four organizations surveyed reported that climate change has already affected their operations.

Geopolitical tensions were the second-highest security concern among respondents. They expect business travel, efficiency, safety and convenience will be affected, and 75 percent think their organizations will be impacted in some way. 

"Notably, the ongoing crisis in Israel and Gaza, as well as the persistent conflict in Ukraine, contribute to this unstable global environment," International SOS said. The Associated Press, for example, reported Nov. 1 that "British intelligence agencies have warned that the war in Gaza could inspire terror attacks across the continent."

Keep Those Promises

Having a culture of trust is essential when crises such as war break out, Elizaveta Bortnikova found.

As chief operating officer and co-founder of New York City-based AI Digital, Bortnikova was living in Moscow overseeing the digital and technology consultancy's 15-member staff there when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

It was "a very out-of-this-universe event," she recalled. "Everybody [was] freaking out, crying."

While Bortnikova initially found it difficult to function as a manager the first couple of days, "I had to pull myself together" and project calm and leadership during that calamitous time.

"It's always important for leaders to remain calm, patient and cognizant of the changing needs of talent after traumatic events," she said. Despite having a contingency plan in place, "circumstances were different than I imagined" or planned for, Bortnikova recalled. For example, she said the company never could predict that credit card companies would cancel all cards accepted by Russian banks, making it impossible for Russians to withdraw cash or otherwise use the cards.

AI Digital relocated its employees to Airbnbs in Dubai and Cyprus immediately after the invasion. It paid for the transportation of employees' significant others and in some cases relocated employees' pets. It also paid for employees' living necessities, such as food, for several months when Russian people were not allowed to open bank accounts. The company eventually found more permanent living quarters for its workers in Cyprus.

Ultimately, Bortnikova said, what serves employees best is that they believe you when you tell them you will take care of them: "You give your word" and keep it.

Trust is established through constant communication, and "the way you manage your team on a daily basis, how you give them feedback back [while] at the same time you overcome issues together," she said.

"Mental health, for example, is a difficult conversation to have with employees who have endured war, but it's an important topic leaders should delicately broach to better understand how they can help and what services they can provide," Bortnikova noted.

"Leaders who have also endured past war trauma can candidly share their own experiences. Relatability can be a strong characteristic in this instance to help break down communication barriers and get to the core of what talent might need." 

Being proactive regarding risk management will be key to managing perma-crisis, International SOS' Llewellyn pointed out.

"Partnering with other organizations or experts can help organizations understand which risks—and their second- or third-order impacts—they are most likely to face based on geographic reach, industry or travel patterns," she said.

"Building resilience within crisis management functions is also important. Expanding pools of leaders able to step in during crises and empowering them through sound training is critical to ensuring perma-crisis does not derail wider business operations." 

Other SHRM Resources:
HR Life During Wartime: How One CHRO Is Supporting Employees in Tel Aviv, SHRM Executive Network, Oct. 30, 2023
Jewish and Palestinian Employers Step Up to Help Workers, SHRM Online, Oct. 19, 2023
War in Ukraine: How Business Leaders Can Support Employees Affected by the Crisis, SHRM Online, March 2, 2022