September Job Gains Higher than Expected

U.S. employers added 254,000 new jobs in September, more than economists had expected, according to the latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In addition, revised figures show that 72,000 more jobs were created in July and August combined than earlier reported.

But hiring overall has been decelerating all year and the report is expected to be critical in shaping the Federal Reserve’s November policy decision on cutting interest rates further.

“The September 2024 report is the strongest in months and underscores just how robust the U.S. labor market remains,” said Justin Ladner, senior labor economist at SHRM. “This continued strength may give the Fed pause as it considers whether and how much to cut interest rates over the remainder of 2024; however, more data will be required to shape the Fed’s decision in this regard.”

Geno Cutolo, president of Adecco North America, said that the latest jobs report indicates employers strongly started their “September Surge” hiring and kicked off robust plans for the holiday shopping season. “With recent announcements from companies that addressed the number of hires they plan for this holiday peak season, the labor market should remain relatively healthy going into the last quarter of 2024,” he said.

“Today’s surprising jobs report is a welcome signal for a labor market that feels like it is treading water,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup North America. “Yet underneath, we’re still seeing undercurrents that paint a less rosy picture,” she said. “Our real-time data shows we’re staying afloat with steady demand, yet there is underlying weakness, with blue-collar hiring down.”

Indeed Hiring Lab economist Cory Stahle said that “even after a year-plus of slowing, the labor market remains in good shape, delivering broad job gains and meaningful wage increases while maintaining a sustainable balance between employer demand and worker supply.”

He added that payroll gains over the last three months now stand at 186,000, well below the 251,000 pace last year but above the 166,000 recorded in 2019.

Strength in job creation spilled over to wages, as average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago.

Industry Breakdown

Restaurants and bars led job creation in September, adding 69,000 positions after averaging just 14,000 over the previous 12 months.

Health care employers contributed 45,000 new jobs, below the average monthly gain of 57,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in government continued its upward trend in September (+31,000), as did the construction sector (+25,000).

“After falling into the doldrums earlier this year, leisure and hospitality jobs have been on a tear recently,” said Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast. “Construction has remained strong while manufacturing continues to decline, losing 9,300 jobs over the last three months.”

Glassdoor lead economist Daniel Zhao added that even with raised interest rates, construction jobs growth has averaged a consistent 21,000 jobs since the beginning of 2022.

“While it is encouraging that the job market and the construction industry specifically were able to withstand the rising interest rates, this also suggests there may not be much room for lower interest rates to immediately boost jobs growth through the housing market,” Zhao said.

Edward Hearn, lead economist at UKG, said that employers are hiring “ahead of a red-hot holiday season, fueled by cooling inflation and recent rate cuts. Over the coming months we also anticipate seeing continued wage increases, especially in shift work, due to a still tight labor market.”  

Hearn added that in manufacturing, the rate at which senior workers are retiring exceeds the rate at which they’re being replaced. The UKG Workforce Institute reports that 61% of manufacturers are struggling to fill crucial labor gaps.

“Funding from the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act is currently supporting building out the U.S.’s manufacturing infrastructure,” he said. “This will lead to a surge of new manufacturing roles within the next couple of years.”

Regarding seasonal holiday hiring, Frankiewicz said that this is set to be another “brick-and-click season” with demand in both logistics and data and traditional retail roles.

“For brick today, the most in-demand retail positions are retail salespeople and front-line supervisors,” she said. “When we look at click, Amazon is hiring more statisticians to better understand consumer demand and purchasing behaviors, allowing them to plan their workforce and supply chains more effectively. In general, we are seeing a significant need for roles such as statistician, data scientist and database architect across several sectors including retail, government, life sciences, and tech. Employers may be talking about AI, yet they’re hiring for data.”   

Unemployment Dips

The unemployment rate fell in September from 4.2% to 4.1%. “The unemployment rate ticked down for all the right reasons, including increased labor force participation and fewer unemployed workers,” Flowers said.

 A more encompassing measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons dropped to 7.7%. The share of the workforce either working or looking for work, known as the labor force participation rate, held steady at 62.7%.

“The unemployment rate fell, which is always a welcome sign, though labor force participation moved sideways, and fewer people took the risk of leaving their jobs,” Stahle said. “The rate of people working or looking for work remains high, with prime-age labor force participation measuring 83.8%.”

Zhao pointed out that the recent increase in unemployment has been driven less by layoffs and more by difficulty new entrants or reentrants to the workforce have faced in finding a job.

Impact on Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve is looking for signs that the gradual cooling in the labor market is continuing, without spiraling downward. Inflationary pressures have eased significantly over the past two years, and the Fed’s focus has shifted more to the employment situation than price pressures.

“The labor market’s ongoing rebalancing toward a soft landing remains fragile,” Stahle said. “Policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely see this report both as validation for the recent interest rate cuts that have already been announced and motivation for more potential cuts going forward, though maybe at a slower pace than expected.”

The Federal Reserve is expected to continue to reduce interest rates from a two-decade high when it meets again Nov. 6-7, but probably not as aggressively as they did at their most recent meeting.

Noah Yosif, chief economist at the American Staffing Association, said that the strength of the September employment report “will likely persuade the Fed to stick by its base case of 25 basis point cuts in November and December while maintaining the flexibility to frontload additional reductions should conditions change.”

He added that the latest report “proves the Fed’s recent pivot on monetary policy has encouraged employers to anticipate a return to hiring and growth.”

Next Month’s Report

Labor market experts believe that this could be the last “clean” employment report from the BLS before the 2024 presidential election in November. That’s because next month’s report will be impacted by the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene.

“The stability reflected in this report may not extend into next month, where the full impact of Hurricane Helene on job markets in the southeast will be reflected,” Stahle said. “And while a large-scale strike by port workers appears to have been at least temporarily halted, ongoing strikes and furloughs at Boeing and/or any other unexpected surprises may yet dent future labor reports.”