Why the AI Job Displacement News May Not Be What HR Leaders Think

As headlines warn of widespread job losses driven by artificial intelligence, organizations may be overlooking a more nuanced reality: AI is transforming jobs far more rapidly than it is eliminating them. 

That was the central message from Justin Ladner, senior labor economist at SHRM, during a session at SHRM26 in Orlando exploring automation, AI, and job displacement risk in the U.S. workforce. Drawing on SHRM research, Ladner shared data from a survey of more than 14,000 U.S. workers and outlined what HR leaders should know about automation’s growing impact on work. 

“Our primary goal is really just to provide an objective assessment in a very uncertain and very volatile environment,” Ladner said. 

AI and Automation Are Becoming Common 

According to the research, AI use and task automation have expanded significantly over the past year. The most common level of both automation and AI usage reported by workers falls between 10% and 15% of job tasks, though exposure varies widely across occupations. 

Technical, white-collar roles such as web developers, software developers, computer programmers, and financial analysts showed the highest levels of automation and AI adoption. Meanwhile, occupations centered on physical work or interpersonal interaction, such as preschool teachers and personal care workers, ranked among the least automated. 

Overall, the research found that approximately 20% of U.S. wage-and-salary jobs have at least half of their tasks automated, while about 21% have at least half of their tasks performed using AI tools. 

For HR leaders, the findings reinforce that AI adoption is no longer limited to a handful of industries or job functions. Instead, it is becoming embedded across a growing range of roles and workflows. 

AI Use Does Not Automatically Mean Job Displacement

One of the study’s key findings is that AI is often used by workers in a context that involves automation, but it’s also used in many contexts that don’t have anything to do with automation.  

That distinction matters for HR leaders evaluating workforce impacts. Employees increasingly use AI to accelerate research, improve writing, analyze information, and complete routine tasks more efficiently without necessarily eliminating the need for human judgment or oversight. 

“It’s much more about augmentation,” Ladner said.  

Non-Technical Barriers Protect Many Jobs

The research found that roughly 60% of U.S. jobs have at least one factor that would protect them from automation, even if technology were technically capable of performing the work. 

These barriers include customer preferences for human interaction, legal and regulatory requirements, organizational constraints, and the cost of implementing automation.

Notably, many highly automated occupations reported high levels of these so-called protective barriers. Workers who regularly use AI may have a deeper understanding of the technology’s limitations and recognize aspects of their jobs that remain difficult to replace, according to Ladner. 

For HR leaders, this suggests that workforce planning should account for more than technical feasibility. Employee trust, customer expectations, compliance requirements, and organizational culture can all influence how quickly automation changes a role.

Only a Small Share of Jobs Face High Displacement Risk

To identify jobs facing high automation displacement risk, SHRM researchers estimated the share of employment in any given occupation that meets two conditions: at least 50% of tasks were automated and no nontechnical barriers were present. 

Using that definition, SHRM estimated that 5.1% of U.S. wage-and-salary employment — or about 7.9 million jobs — faces high automation displacement risk. 

While significant, the figure is far lower than some of the more alarming projections circulating in public discussions about AI. 

“I think our overall story, at least currently, would be much more that automation technology and the AI movement today has really so far been more about transforming work than displacing work,” Ladner said. “We’ve seen a lot more people change how they complete tasks than people be displaced.”

For HR leaders, the immediate challenge is helping employees adapt to rapidly evolving ways of working. As AI capabilities continue to advance, organizations that focus on reskilling, workforce agility, and human-centered work design may have a competitive edge.