OUR PERSPECTIVES
Purpose
As the next wave of people entering the world of work for the first time, nonstudents ages 16 to 24 represent a critical component of the U.S. labor force.1 Organizations grappling with ongoing labor shortages, evolving worker expectations, and rapid shifts in labor market dynamics have an increasingly vital need to understand this population. Additionally, the changing landscape — including rising postsecondary education costs, increased access to alternative educational and career pathways, and a growing emphasis on skills-based hiring — is reshaping how young people approach work, training, and career progression in today’s workforce.
This data brief aims to deliver key data-driven insights about the nonstudent youth population by analyzing historical trends and emerging dynamics that contribute to this group’s evolving role in the U.S. labor force.
KEY FINDING NO. 1
As of September 2025, the 12-month Average Population of Nonstudent Youth Stood at 18.8 Million
Figure 1 reports the 12-month average population size of people ages 16 to 24 from December 1985 through September 2025, both overall and for nonstudents alone. Both populations experienced a decline during the mid-1980s and much of the 1990s, reflecting generational shifts such as the sharp decline in birth rates in the 1960s and early 1970s. From 2000 onward, the average nonstudent population stabilized between 17 million and 19 million, reaching 18.8 million people in September 2025. In contrast, the overall population ages 16 to 24 grew steadily, from 34 million people in January 2000 to 39.6 million by September 2025,2 a trend partially driven by modest increases in birth rates from the mid-1970s through 1990.3
The plateau in the nonstudent youth population is largely explained by rising college enrollment rates, which were significant during the 2000s and continued, although with less momentum, until the early 2010s.4 By August 2012, 54.8% of people ages 16 to 24 were enrolled in school, on average, reversing the earlier majority status of nonstudents. Despite this shift, the nonstudent population remains a substantial talent pool and vital resource for addressing workforce needs, especially as educational and generational trends evolve.
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KEY FINDING NO. 2
Declining Labor Force Participation Among Men Has Driven Down the Average Nonstudent Youth Labor Force Participation Rate, From 80.5% in December 1985 to 77.5% in September 2025
Figure 2 illustrates the 12-month average labor force participation rate for the population of nonstudents ages 16 to 24, segmented by gender, from December 1985 to September 2025. The chart highlights a slight but notable decline in overall labor force participation among nonstudent youth driven by a much more substantial decline in participation among men. In contrast, women’s average labor force participation rate has remained stable or increased slightly, standing at 74.6% as of September 2025. As a result, the gender gap in labor force participation rates has narrowed substantially over time.
This gender divergence in labor force participation may be shaped by a combination of economic, social, and industry-specific factors. For young, nonstudent men, the decline in labor force participation between the late 1990s and mid-2010s was largely driven by structural changes in labor demand, such as shifts away from traditional entry-level roles in sectors like manufacturing, where men have historically been overrepresented. At the same time, wage stagnation for low-skill jobs has also discouraged participation as the economic incentives for early work experience have diminished. Furthermore, social dynamics, including delayed workforce entry, could further influence participation rates among men.5 In contrast, labor force participation among young, nonstudent women has benefited from expanded opportunities in service sectors, greater access to flexible work arrangements, and evolving cultural norms that support women’s participation in the workforce.
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KEY FINDING NO. 3
The 12-month Average Employment Share of Nonstudent Youth Fell From 14.4% in December 1985 to 8% in September 2025
Figure 3 tracks the 12-month average share of U.S. employment accounted for by nonstudent youth, spanning from December 1985 through September 2025. Over this 40-year period, the data reveals a sustained decline in the representation of nonstudent youth in total employment, particularly between December 1985 and September 2010. During this period, the share of total employment held by nonstudent youth steadily decreased from 14.4% to roughly 7.6%. Since then, nonstudent youth have consistently represented about 8% of U.S. employment.
This trend is certainly the result of many factors, but three drivers deserve particular emphasis here. First, the population of nonstudent youth shrunk somewhat in the 1980s and early 1990s, whereas the remainder of the working age population grew. Second, the aforementioned decline in labor force participation for nonstudent youth — especially among men — has been a huge barrier to employment growth for this group. Finally, population aging and the consistent rise in labor force participation among people ages 65 and older from the mid-1990s through the dawn of the COVID-19 pandemic has put downward pressure on the representation of nonstudent youth in overall employment.
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KEY FINDING NO. 4
Nonstudent Youth Represent Over 10% of Employment in Seven Major Occupational Groups, on Average
Figure 4 illustrates the average share of nonstudent youth employment across major occupational groups during the 12-month period covering October 2024 through September 2025. On average, nonstudents ages 16 to 24 accounted for 8% of all workers during this period; however, representation varied significantly across occupational groups. The food preparation and serving occupational group stands out, with nonstudent youth making up over 20% of total employment, on average. Other groups with significant nonstudent youth representation include personal care and service (12.8%); construction and extraction (11.5%); farming, fishing, and forestry (11.5%); and transportation and material moving (11.5%). In contrast, nonstudent youth participation was much lower in professional and technical fields. For example, nonstudents ages 16 to 24 accounted for 4% of workers in business and financial operations, followed by management (2.6%) and legal (2%) occupations.
These trends are shaped by several underlying factors. Occupations with higher shares of nonstudent youth employment typically offer entry-level positions that require fewer formal qualifications and provide opportunities for on-the-job training. Such roles are more accessible to young workers who may be entering the workforce directly from high school. Conversely, professional and technical occupations tend to demand advanced education, specialized credentials, or significant prior experience, which limits opportunities for younger nonstudents.
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KEY FINDING NO. 5
Nonstudent Youth Represent Over 10% of Employment in Three Major Industry Groups, on Average
Figure 5 presents the average share of employment represented by nonstudent youth across major industry groups during the 12-month period from October 2024 through September 2025. On average, nonstudents ages 16 to 24 accounted for 8% of all workers; however, representation varied significantly across industry groups. The accommodation and food service industry stands out, with nonstudent youth making up about 20% of total employment. Other industries with notable nonstudent youth representation include retail trade (13.5%) as well as arts, entertainment, and recreation (11.8%). In contrast, several industries exhibited much lower rates of nonstudent youth employment, including educational services (4.5%), financial and insurance (4.4%), and public administration (2.6%).
These patterns reflect the nature of opportunities and barriers within each industry. Sectors with higher shares of nonstudent youth, such as accommodation and food service, typically offer entry-level positions that are accessible to young workers without advanced credentials. These industries also often provide flexible schedules and on-the-job training, making them attractive to people starting their working lives. In contrast, industries with low youth representation tend to require specialized education, professional certifications, or significant prior experience, which limits entry for younger, nonstudent workers.
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KEY FINDING NO. 6
Since Peaking in 2020, the 12-month Average Share of Employed Nonstudents Ages 20 to 24 With at Least Some College Education Has Steadily Declined
Figure 6 depicts the 12-month average share of the employed nonstudent population ages 20 to 24 who have attained some college education or more, spanning from December 2015 through September 2025. Most gains in educational attainment occurred from the 2000s to early 2010s, but the chart aims to highlight recent developments of postsecondary educational attainment among young, nonstudent workers. The findings reveal alternating periods of growth and decline in the mid-2010s, followed by a sharp rise to about 56% in December 2020. However, that rise has given way to a significant, sustained decline in subsequent years, with the 12-month average share of the employed nonstudent population ages 20 to 24 that has completed at least some college education standing at 48.5% in September 2025.
Several factors can help explain the recent decline in postsecondary attainment among young workers. The principal driver is a falling share of high school graduates enrolling in traditional four-year colleges, particularly for young men, who often cite reasons such as lack of interest or a belief that college is unnecessary for their desired career paths. Additionally, the cost of a four-year college degree is a significant barrier for both men and women.6 A second major factor is the disconnect between higher education and labor market demands. While colleges are facing enrollment challenges, the broader economy is experiencing a labor shortage, prompting employers to prioritize practical skills over traditional degrees. The rise of micro-credentials and nondegree programs offers alternative pathways, enabling young adults to acquire job-relevant skills quickly and enter the workforce without formal college education.
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KEY FINDING NO. 7
Recently, the Average Share of Nonstudent Labor Force Participants Ages 20 to 24 With a Professional Certification Has Experienced Modest Growth
Figure 7 illustrates the 12-month average share of nonstudent labor force participants ages 20 to 24 who possess a professional certification, covering the period from December 2015 through September 2025. The data reveals a declining trend in the average share of nonstudents who reported having a professional certification from December 2015 to December 2018. After this initial drop, the share remained relatively stable for several years. However, beginning in mid-2024, an emerging pattern has appeared, with a modest increase in the average share of nonstudent labor force participants ages 20 to 24 who reported having a professional certification, reaching 13.5% in September 2025, representing the highest level observed in the past decade.
This recent development likely reflects several converging factors. The post-pandemic labor market has seen a growing emphasis on skills-based hiring, with employers valuing practical, job-ready competencies over traditional academic credentials. At the same time, the declining perceived value of traditional college degrees and the expanded accessibility of online learning platforms and industry-specific training may have prompted young adults to pursue short-term credentialing, such as community college undergraduate certifications, as safer and more financially viable options to enhance their employability in today’s economic environment.
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KEY FINDING NO. 8
The Average Unemployment Rate Gap Between Nonstudents Ages 20 to 24 With a High School Diploma and Those With a bachelor’s Degree Has Narrowed Significantly
Figure 8 presents the 12-month average unemployment rate for nonstudents ages 20 to 24, comparing those with a high school diploma to those with a bachelor's degree, from December 2015 through September 2025. In December 2015, high school diploma holders experienced an average unemployment rate of 12.9%, more than double the 6.2% average unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders. Over the following decade, this gap narrowed considerably. By September 2025, the average unemployment rate for high school diploma holders had declined to 9.6%, while the average unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders increased to 7.4%.
These findings suggest that although a bachelor’s degree has historically offered a premium in terms of job security, this advantage has diminished for young people in the labor force. The difference in average unemployment rates is now considerably smaller, indicating that the strong job security premium associated with a bachelor’s degree is less pronounced than what it was in the past. Higher education continues to offer some protection, especially during economic downturns, but the changing trends highlight a shift in the relative value of educational attainment for this population.
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CONCLUSION
Despite experiencing periods of worsening labor force outcomes in recent decades, nonstudent youth continue to represent a sizeable and vital segment of the workforce. This population remains a significant talent pool, offering diverse skills and perspectives that are essential for meeting evolving business needs.
As labor market dynamics shift and educational pathways diversify, young people are increasingly confronted with important decisions regarding their futures. Economic uncertainty, rising tuition costs, and the growing recognition of alternative credentials have led many to reconsider the traditional college route. At the same time, employers are placing greater emphasis on practical skills, certifications, and relevant experience, further incentivizing young people to explore nontraditional avenues for career preparation. This bifurcation, between pursuing a four-year degree or opting for alternative pathways, reflects a broader transformation in how the next generation evaluates opportunities for upward mobility and job security. For HR professionals and employers, it is crucial to adapt recruitment and workforce development strategies to cultivate this talent pool by expanding criteria beyond academic attainment, fostering inclusive career pathways, and investing in ongoing skills-building initiatives.
Definitions
Nonstudent youth: The population of people ages 16 to 24 who are not enrolled in school.
Labor force participation rate: The share of people in a civilian, noninstitutionalized population ages 16 and older who are in the labor force. In this brief, we focus on the labor force participation rate of the nonstudent youth population.
Employment share: The share of employed people (either overall or in subgroup of interest) accounted for by a specific group. In this brief, we focus on the share of employment (either overall or by industry or occupation) accounted for by nonstudent youth.
Professional certification: Since 2015, the CPS asked whether the respondent has a professional certification or state or industry license. Business licenses are not included.
Unemployment rate: The share of the labor force that does not have a job and is actively looking for work. For example, the unemployment rate for the nonstudent youth population would represent the fraction of the nonstudent youth labor force that does not have a job and is actively looking for work.
Methods and Data
This labor force snapshot relies on one key source of data, the CPS, which is obtained via two separate databases. The analysis of historical trends in labor market outcomes (i.e., Figures 1 through 3) uses data series that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly publishes based on its CPS data.7 The remainder of the analysis (i.e., Figures 4 through 8), which focuses on current or emerging trends among nonstudent youth, is entirely based on public-use CPS microdata downloaded from IPUMS CPS, a social and economic data curation, archiving, and dissemination program within the University of Minnesota’s Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation.8 Because month-to-month data can be volatile, all values reported in this brief represent 12-month pooled averages. For example, the population levels reported for September 2025 in Figure 1 are based on the average population size between October 2024 and September 2025.
1. The nonstudent youth population, defined as people ages 16 to 24 who are not enrolled in school, should not be confused with the population labeled as “opportunity youth,” which typically refers to people ages 16 to 24 who are neither in school nor working. The two populations are related, but the aim of this data brief is to document labor force characteristics for the nonstudent population ages 16 to 24.
2. From 2021 onward, the Current Population Survey (CPS) weights were adjusted to incorporate 2020 U.S. Census-based population controls, which significantly impacted data and population counts. The large increase observed in the youth population ages 16 to 24 since 2021 can be, in part, attributed to this change.
3. According to World Bank estimates, in 1960, there were, on average, 23.3 births per 1,000 people in the U.S. By 1976, this value had declined to 14.6. Average birth rates then increased until 1990, when they reached 16.7 births per 1,000 people. Birth rates have since declined, reaching 10.7 in 2023.
4. Based on National Center for Education Statistics data, college enrollment increased from 15.3 million in fall 2000 to 21 million in fall 2010.
5. In addition to these factors, it is also worth noting that other types of labor force activities, such an informal or gig work, which are common among young adults, are not captured very well in the CPS data. This measurement issue may understate actual labor force participation rates for this population.
6. In 2022, only 39% of young men who have completed high school were enrolled in college, down from 47% in 2011. The rate at which young female high school graduates enroll in college has also fallen, but not nearly as much (from 52% to 48%).
7. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, January 1985-September 2025. Data downloaded from the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPS Databases, https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/ln/.
8. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS) basic monthly data, January 2015-September 2025. Data downloaded from IPUMS CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.