AI Exposure Alone Doesn’t Predict Where Jobs Grow

The U.S. labor market is entering a period of slower overall employment growth and continued technological change — but new projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggest employers should be cautious about assuming that artificial intelligence exposure alone will determine which jobs survive or disappear.

The BLS projects the U.S. economy will add 5.9 million jobs between 2025 and 2035, with total employment rising 3.5%. That represents a major slowdown from the 10.9% growth recorded between 2015 and 2025. An aging population and a shrinking supply of available workers are the main factors behind the more modest outlook, said Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab.

The continued retirement of Baby Boomers will affect labor availability across industries, potentially increasing competition for workers even where headline employment growth is modest.

“That big Baby Boomer retirement horizon that we have been talking about for years? We’re in the middle of it now,” Stahle said. “That comes with a pretty big drop in labor supply.”

The projections also point to a more complicated story about AI. Some highly AI-exposed occupations are expected to grow, while some lesser-exposed occupations are projected to contract. That makes AI exposure a poor standalone indicator for workforce planning.

“There is no doubt that AI has started to change the labor market — though sometimes in unexpected ways,” said Julius Probst, senior economist at Appcast. “So far, the bigger economic impact has come through the data center construction boom, which has mainly benefited skilled blue-collar workers. While AI’s effect on white-collar sectors has been more limited than many predicted, that might be about to change as worker productivity in tech and in professional services is accelerating.”

Event: All Things Work 2026

Healthcare Dominates Job Growth

Healthcare and social assistance are expected to account for roughly 37% of all new jobs through 2035. The sector is projected to add more than 2.2 million positions, driven largely by an aging population and the prevalence of chronic health conditions. Healthcare support occupations are projected to grow 13.3%, while healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are expected to grow 8%.

“850,000 home health and personal care aide jobs are expected to be added in the next 10 years,” Stahle said.

“Healthcare remains one of the clearest growth areas,” said Amy Glaser, senior vice president at Adecco. “Beyond healthcare, we’re seeing continued demand for technology talent, particularly in data, AI, cybersecurity, and digital transformation roles. Skilled trades, logistics, supply chain, and infrastructure-related positions also remain strong as companies continue investing in manufacturing, distribution, and energy projects.”

Glaser added that many of the fastest-growing roles “sit at the intersection of technology and human capability. Employers are looking for people who can leverage technology, solve complex problems, and adapt as business needs evolve.”

Specialty Credential: AI+HI

AI Creates Demand

AI is reshaping the composition of labor demand. Electricity-related industries are among the fastest-growing areas as AI adoption increases demand for data centers and other IT infrastructure. Computing, data processing, web hosting, and related services are projected to grow 25.1% and add 120,400 jobs through 2035.

Renewable-energy occupations are also projected to grow rapidly. Solar photovoltaic installers are projected to grow 36.5%, while wind turbine service technicians are projected to grow 29.5%.

“The demand for electricity is pushing certain industries to the top,” Stahle said. “But it’s important to note that while those industries will grow relative to their overall small size, the actual number of jobs expected to be created is less than 35,000 jobs.”

Perhaps the most consequential finding for HR is that BLS data does not show a clear relationship between AI exposure and future employment growth. Across 831 occupations, the BLS found no relationship between an occupation’s AI exposure and whether employment is projected to grow or shrink.

“It’s not necessarily a determining factor in whether an industry is adding or losing jobs,” Stahle said. “If you look at jobs with high expectations for growth over the next 10 years, you see some jobs with high exposure to AI, like software developers.”

Probst similarly cautioned against interpreting exposure as a forecast of displacement.

“The somewhat boring but hopefully reassuring finding is that the jobs with the highest AI exposure are not projected to grow any slower or faster than the rest,” he said.

That does not mean AI will have little effect on jobs. Rather, the technology may change what workers do within occupations instead of eliminating entire occupations.

“It’s still early, and we don’t fully understand what the impact of AI is going to be on productivity, and what it means for jobs to be exposed to AI,” Stahle said. “It begs the question: does deploying AI have to lead to job loss? It’s still not clear how that will shake out.”

Implications for Recruiters

The projections reinforce the importance of workforce planning based on tasks and skills rather than simply categorizing jobs as “AI exposed” or “AI proof.”

“For recruiters, this means AI exposure alone is a poor guide to where hiring demand is heading,” Probst said. “As AI absorbs routine execution, employers will increasingly screen for judgment, oversight, and stakeholder skills, making it harder for junior candidates to get a foot in the door. Software development, where senior roles are thriving while junior workers struggle, is a case in point.”

That shift could make skills-based hiring increasingly important — but it also creates a challenge for employers. If entry-level tasks are increasingly automated, organizations will need to consider how they develop early-career talent and provide pathways for workers to acquire the higher-level skills that AI is less capable of replacing.

“AI is influencing virtually every conversation we’re having with clients right now, but we’re seeing much more job transformation than job elimination,” Glaser said.

“Employers are rethinking how work gets done and are starting to incorporate AI-related skills into a wide range of roles, not just technology positions,” she said. “We’re seeing increased demand for candidates who are comfortable using AI-powered tools, interpreting data, and working alongside technology to improve productivity. The biggest workforce story of the next decade isn’t that AI will replace jobs. It’s that AI will change the skills required to be successful in almost every job.”