Seasonal Hiring Demand Falls Back Down to Pre-Pandemic Level

Holiday job postings for seasonal positions are back to 2019 levels, but job seeker interest in these roles is the highest in years, meaning greater competition is in store for applicants.

As of Sept. 24, job postings for seasonal positions were 0.5% higher than they were on the same day in 2019 but still 12% lower than a 2021 peak, according to data from Indeed. Job postings in retail are particularly strong, accounting for 66% of all seasonal postings and up nearly eight percentage points from last year’s share.

“Historically, postings for seasonal workers start ramping up in September and peak in November, offering a preview of what we can expect as we head into the holidays,” said Allison Shrivastava, an associate economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Demand for holiday jobs has returned to pre-pandemic levels, offering a welcome reprieve from the overheated post-pandemic labor market of 2021. While employers aren’t entering the holidays with new pessimism, the hiring frenzy of recent years has certainly cooled off.”

On the other side of the employment equation, job searches for seasonal holiday work have surpassed their pre-pandemic base line. “Any lingering concerns about COVID-19 exposure through in-person work like retail, seem to have abated, as searches for seasonal jobs as a share of total searches reached their highest levels in recent years,” Shrivastava said. “However, this increased interest comes alongside fewer opportunities than in 2022 and 2021, which means greater competition for seasonal positions.”

She added that the seasonal hiring outlook resembles the broader labor market—an abundance of interested talent contrasted with slowed-down demand.

Retail Hiring Outlook

Strong retail staffing announcements kicked off the holiday hiring season in September, alongside initial projections for retail sales to grow modestly.

Retailers appear to be preparing for a strong spending season while inflation is cooling, but so is consumer spending, according to global outplacement/career transition business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas (“Challenger”).

A cooling labor market may lead to fewer hires than in previous years, according to Challenger’s analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The firm predicts that retailers will add 520,000 new jobs in Q4, the second-lowest total since 2009 and below last year’s roughly 564,000 jobs.

“This prediction considers that now, job gains are falling and consumers have tightened spending,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger. “That said, the cooling seems to be slow. Seasonal employers will add jobs, but need may fluctuate as the season progresses.”

Challenger has tracked 334,850 seasonal hiring plans this year. A few of the large-scale hiring announcements include Amazon planning to employ 250,000 additional workers, particularly in fulfillment and transportation; Target hiring 100,000 seasonal employees for its stores and supply centers; and the United Parcel Service looking to bring on more than 125,000 seasonal workers.

The transportation and warehousing sector added 336,400 seasonal workers last year, according to Challenger. The sector added 552,300 seasonal employees in 2021, the most ever.

“Transportation, shipping, and warehousing may not see the dramatic seasonal hiring spikes of previous years due to ongoing staffing stabilization and the increased use of automation,” Andrew Challenger said. “As companies navigate these evolving conditions, the flexibility to adapt to changing demand will be key in determining the final outcomes of seasonal hiring efforts. Ultimately, while the hiring landscape may be less aggressive than in recent years, it remains an essential part of the holiday economy.”