Current Conditions: Positive Ratings Decline in Q2 2026
After a highly volatile 2025, with seismic shifts in trade policy that prompted inflation fears and a severe stock market downturn, attitudes about economic conditions collapsed in Q2 2025, as the share of executives rating current economic conditions as poor or very poor reached 43%. Those attitudes partially recovered in Q3 2025, but since then, the share of HR executives who feel that current conditions are poor or very poor has gradually crept upward from 21% to 29% as of Q2 2026.
The share of HR leaders who feel that current economic conditions are good or excellent decreased from 24% to 17% between Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, while the share reporting fair conditions edged up from 48% to 53%.
Economic Forecast: Pessimism Intensifies
While the average outlook for future economic conditions improved from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, HR executives’ attitudes have worsened in the most recent quarter. The share of HR leaders who expect economic conditions to be poor or very poor in six months increased by 8 percentage points over the last quarter, rising from 30% in Q1 2026 to 38% in Q2 2026. Overall, optimism has declined, with the proportion of HR executives anticipating good or excellent economic conditions over the next six-month period falling from 24% to 19%, and the share who expect conditions to be fair slightly declining from 46% to 43%.
Many HR executives now expect future economic conditions to be poor or fair, with fewer than 1 in 5 expecting economic conditions to be good or excellent, down 17 percentage points from Q1 2025. This shift may reflect waning confidence in the economy due to increased uncertainty, and HR executives’ attitudes will likely continue to evolve as economic conditions change.
Event
SHRM Visionaries Summit 2026
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Business Forecast: Expectations Hold Steady
Between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, HR executives became much more bullish about revenue, profit, and capital expenditure growth in their organizations. However, in Q2 2026, this upward trend has stalled, with expectations of growth in all three areas remaining relatively unchanged. This stabilization may reflect a more cautious outlook for HR leaders, as many anticipate worsening economic conditions in the near term.
- Revenue: 51% of HR executives expect an increase (a 2-percentage-point decrease from Q1 2026).
- Profits: 43% of HR executives expect an increase (unchanged).
- Capital expenditures: 43% of HR executives expect an increase (a 2-percentage-point decrease).
| Increase of more than 20% | Increase of 10% to 20% | Increase of less than 10% | No change | Decrease of less than 10% | Decrease of 10% to 20% | Decrease of more than 20% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0% | 15.8% | 33.6% | 31.2% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% |
| Profits | 1.6% | 11.0% | 30.2% | 38.4% | 12.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Capital Expenditures | 4.1% | 13.2% | 25.5% | 39.1% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
Seminar
Business Acumen: Aligning Business Operations and HR
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Methodology
The CHRO Outlook survey is a research study conducted quarterly. The survey was fielded electronically using the SHRM Voice of Work Research Panel to U.S.-based HR executives and senior HR executives (VP+). Respondents represented organizations of all sizes across multiple industries.
| Quarter | Sample Size (n) | Fielding Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | n = 241 | Dec. 1-22, 2022 |
| Q1 2023 | n = 249 | March 6-21, 2023 |
| Q2 2023 | n = 199 | June 8-15, 2023 |
| Q3 2023 | n = 536 | Aug. 30-Sept. 11, 2023 |
| Q4 2023 | n = 376 | Nov. 17-22, 2023 |
| Q1 2024 | n = 391 | Jan. 3-10, 2024 |
| Q2 2024 | n = 352 | April 15-24, 2024 |
| Q3 2024 | n = 339 | July 17-25, 2024 |
| Q4 2024 | n = 320 | Oct. 16-25, 2024 |
| Q1 2025 | n = 323 | Jan. 13-21, 2025 |
| Q2 2025 | n = 353 | April 8-20, 2025 |
| Q3 2025 | n = 307 | July 9-21, 2025 |
| Q4 2025 | n = 262 | Oct. 14-24, 2025 |
| Q1 2026 | n = 276 | Jan. 13-31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 | n = 258 | Apr. 14-30, 2026 |
Read the Q2 2026 series:
CHRO Employment Outlook | CHRO Economic Outlook | SHRM Hiring and Retention Difficulty Indexes