Current Conditions: Attitudes Polarize Slightly to Start 2026
The last four quarters of data on HR executives’ feelings about current economic conditions reveal that these attitudes are continuing to evolve after a highly volatile 2025. Attitudes about economic conditions collapsed in the second quarter of 2025, largely due to the seismic shifts in trade policy that prompted inflation fears and a severe stock market downturn. The share of executives who rated current economic conditions as poor or very poor rose from just 13% in Q1 2025 to 43% in Q2. Those attitudes partially recovered in Q3 2025, but since then, the share of HR executives who feel that current conditions are poor or very poor has crept upward to 28% as of Q1 2026.
The share of HR leaders who feel that current economic conditions are good or very good edged up from 21% to 24% between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, while the share reporting fair conditions fell from 54% to 48%. HR executives’ attitudes about current economic conditions show signs of polarization.
Economic Forecast: Continued Shift Toward ‘Fair’ Expectations
HR executives’ attitudes about future economic conditions also vary, though the average outlook has improved over the last year. In fact, the share of HR leaders who expect economic conditions to be poor or very poor in six months has plummeted from 53% in Q2 2025 to 30% for Q1 2026, though the biggest decline occurred by Q3 2025. Over the same period, the share of HR executives who expect economic conditions to be good or excellent over the next six-month period has risen from 15% to 24%, and the share who expect conditions to be fair has risen from 32% to 46%.
Despite upgrading their economic outlooks for the near future, fewer than 1 in 4 HR executives said they expect economic conditions to be good or excellent. Instead, many feel that conditions are likely to be fair going forward, which reflects the fact that key economic indicators have given mixed signs about economic conditions over the last year.
Event
SHRM26: Executive Network Experience
Join senior HR leaders to benchmark expectations, share strategies, and gain actionable insights for navigating uncertain economic conditions. Prepare your organization for the future with peer collaboration and expert guidance in a dynamic, forward-looking environment.
Business Forecast: Share of Leaders Expecting Growth Surges
Recently, HR executives have become much more bullish about revenue, profit, and capital expenditure growth in their organizations. Prior to Q1 2026, expectations of growth in all three areas had been relatively muted, largely driven by a steep decline starting in Q2 2025. The improvements seen at the start of 2026 represent a compelling development that policymakers and business leaders would do well to track closely in 2026.
- Revenue: 53% of HR executives expect an increase (10 percentage points more than in Q4 2025).
- Profits: 43% of HR executives expect an increase (a 4-percentage-point increase).
- Capital expenditures: 45% of HR executives expect an increase (a 10-percentage-point increase).
| Increase of more than 20% | Increase of 10% to 20% | Increase of less than 10% | No change | Decrease of less than 10% | Decrease of 10% to 20% | Decrease of more than 20% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3% | 17.4% | 33% | 25.8% | 14.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Profits | 2.7% | 10.6% | 30% | 34.2% | 14.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capital Expenditures | 4.9% | 13.2% | 27.2% | 38.5% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3% |
Seminar
Business Acumen: Aligning Business Operations and HR
Equip your team to translate positive growth outlooks into operational success. Learn how to align HR initiatives with business goals, drive revenue and capital investments, and strengthen HR’s impact on organizational performance in a rapidly improving economic environment.
Methodology
The CHRO Outlook survey is a research study conducted quarterly. The survey was fielded electronically using the SHRM Voice of Work Research Panel to U.S.-based HR executives and senior HR executives (VP+). Respondents represented organizations of all sizes across multiple industries.
| Quarter | Sample Size (n) | Fielding Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | n = 241 | Dec. 1-22, 2022 |
| Q1 2023 | n = 249 | March 6-21, 2023 |
| Q2 2023 | n = 199 | June 8-15, 2023 |
| Q3 2023 | n = 536 | Aug. 30-Sept. 11, 2023 |
| Q4 2023 | n = 376 | Nov. 17-22, 2023 |
| Q1 2024 | n = 391 | Jan. 3-10, 2024 |
| Q2 2024 | n = 352 | April 15-24, 2024 |
| Q3 2024 | n = 339 | July 17-25, 2024 |
| Q4 2024 | n = 320 | Oct. 16-25, 2024 |
| Q1 2025 | n = 323 | Jan. 13-21, 2025 |
| Q2 2025 | n = 353 | April 8-20, 2025 |
| Q3 2025 | n = 307 | July 9-21, 2025 |
| Q4 2025 | n = 262 | Oct. 14-24, 2025 |
| Q1 2026 | n = 276 | Jan. 13-31, 2026 |
Read the Q1 2026 series:
CHRO Employment Outlook | CHRO Economic Outlook | SHRM Hiring and Retention Difficulty Indexes