SHRM Research Finds AI and Automation Exposure Is Rising, but High Job Displacement Risk Remains Limited

ORLANDO, Fla. — Today, SHRM, the trusted authority on all things work, workers, and the workplace, released new findings from its latest research report, Automation, AI, and Job Displacement Risk in U.S. Employment (2026). The report builds on SHRM’s multiyear research effort launched in 2025 to provide timely, objective data on automation, artificial intelligence, and job displacement risk across the U.S. labor market. The 2026 findings update SHRM’s original estimates and add new insight into how automation exposure, AI use, and nontechnical barriers are shaping near-term displacement risk.

النتائج الرئيسية:

• 20% of wage/salary employment is at least 50% automated, and 21% of employment is at least 50% done using AI tools.
• 60.4% of wage/salary employment has at least one nontechnical barrier to automation displacement.
• Client preferences continue to be the most common nontechnical barrier to displacement.
• 5.1% of wage/salary employment is at least 50% automated and has no nontechnical barriers to displacement.
• Labor demand has declined more for occupations with higher shares of employment facing high displacement risk since November 2022.

"The growth of AI and automation does not automatically translate to widespread job displacement," said James Atkinson, vice president of thought leadership at SHRM. "Our research shows that while automation exposure increased over the past year, nontechnical factors continue to limit displacement risk across much of the labor market. These findings reinforce the importance of looking beyond technology alone when assessing workforce impact. Employers that understand both the opportunities and constraints of automation will be better positioned to make informed talent and business decisions in the years ahead."

The report finds that average task automation increased over the past year, but the share of U.S. wage/salary employment facing high displacement risk declined from 6% to 5.1%, equivalent to about 7.9 million jobs.  

The research suggests that near-term worker displacement from advancing automation is likely to remain limited as a share of total U.S. employment and concentrated in specific occupations and circumstances. Even so, the report underscores that displacement could still affect millions of jobs, with some roles facing meaningfully higher exposure than others.

المنهجية

This study leveraged data from 14,245 U.S. workers who completed the 2026 SHRM Automation/AI survey. These survey responses were used in conjunction with an occupational similarity matrix based on O*NET generalized work activity data to obtain proximity-based estimates of high task automation, high AI usage, nontechnical barriers to displacement, and high displacement risk employment shares for each of 830 detailed occupations included in the May 2025 BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) data. These estimates were then combined with the May 2025 BLS OEWS occupational employment values to estimates the exposure of U.S. wage/salary employment to high automation displacement risk, both overall and for subgroups of interest.   

نبذة عن SHRM

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