New SHRM Research on the U.S. Labor Shortage: Occupational Mismatch Affects One-Third of Job Openings

ALEXANDRIA, Va. – Today, new research launched by SHRM – the trusted authority on all things work, workers, and the workplace – shares a more complex picture of the U.S. labor shortage than previously understood. The study, Help Wanted: Understanding the U.S. Labor Shortage, introduces new data that captures a key barrier to matching between employers and job seekers.

SHRM's new approach goes beyond traditional metrics by incorporating occupational matching constraints. While the standard unemployed-people-per-job-opening ratio (UJOR) provides a useful labor shortage snapshot, it assumes that any unemployed person can fill any job opening. This overlooks critical barriers like occupational mismatch, where job openings may go unfilled and unemployed people may not be able to find work because the occupations demanded by employers align poorly with the occupational experience of unemployed people.

Major Takeaways:

• Critical role of occupational mismatch: One especially important barrier to matching is occupational mismatch, in which organizations struggle to fill positions because there is an insufficient supply of unemployed people with the necessary occupational experience.
  • Similarly, occupational mismatch can prevent an unemployed person from finding a job if there aren’t openings aligned with that person’s occupational experience.
• Consequences of occupational mismatch as of July 2025:
  • 32.7% of job openings could not be filled by unemployed people whose most recent employment was in the same occupational group.
  • 26.5% of unemployed people could not be matched to a job opening in the same occupational group as their most recent employment
• Sector-specific recruitment strategies needed: Successful talent acquisition requires tailored approaches to address shortages in specific occupational groups.

“Our research brings to light the real story behind the numbers. It’s not so much how many jobs are open, but rather if we have people with the relevant occupational experience to fill them,” said James Atkinson, VP of Thought Leadership at SHRM. “This occupational mismatch is a wake-up call for employers and policymakers alike. If we want to build resilient teams and thriving organizations, we need to invest in skills-first strategies and rethink how we connect talent to opportunity.”

The findings have significant implications for organizational recruiting and retention strategies. The data demonstrates that – even during periods when overall labor market conditions appear favorable – certain occupational groups consistently face shortages while others have surplus labor. This suggests successful talent acquisition requires sector-specific approaches, rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.

SHRM plans to continue refining and expanding this research to provide organizations, policymakers, and job seekers with actionable insights for navigating an increasingly complex labor market.  

SHRM members can access resources to help individual organizations address this shortage, including toolkits and the SHRM Foundation's Center for a Skills First Future.

Methodology

The novel metrics introduced in this brief are calculated using monthly job openings data powered by Lightcast and monthly unemployment population values calculated using Current Population Survey (CPS) data downloaded from IPUMS CPS (cps.ipums.org). In all cases, these metrics are reported as three-month pooled averages. Other metrics appearing in the brief, including the monthly UJOR, are calculated using two regularly published monthly BLS data series, one capturing the overall size of unemployed population, and the other capturing total job openings.

About SHRM

SHRM is a member-driven catalyst for creating better workplaces where people and businesses thrive together. As the trusted authority on all things work, SHRM is the foremost expert, researcher, advocate, and thought leader on issues and innovations impacting today’s evolving workplaces. With nearly 340,000 members in 180 countries, SHRM touches the lives of more than 362 million workers and their families globally. Discover more at SHRM.org.