The U.S. labor market proved unexpectedly resilient in Q2 2026, after months of softening conditions. Employers created over half a million jobs between March 2026 and May 2026, while the unemployment rate remained stable, as reported in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May Jobs Report. An analysis of public and private data reveals employers in certain sectors continue to struggle to attract and/or retain talent, indicating that labor shortages remain a major challenge in some fields.
The Unemployed-People-Per-Job-Opening Ratio (UJOR)
From mid-2021 to mid-2025, the unemployed-people-per-job-opening ratio (UJOR) remained well below one — reflecting pandemic-related labor shortages and a tight labor market — but gradually recovered, and since July 2025 it has consistently exceeded one, indicating there are more job seekers than available job openings.
However, in April 2026 the ratio fell below one once again, as the UJOR sat at 0.97, with about 245,000 more job openings than unemployed people. Just a few months ago, in December 2025, there were nearly 953,000 more unemployed people than job openings, indicating a strong rebound in labor demand relative to supply in a relatively short period.
It is important to note that recent UJOR values remain relatively low compared to historical levels. In fact, before early 2018, the UJOR consistently stayed above one, with monthly values surpassing six for a brief period in 2009. The current national numbers of unemployed people and job openings have been very close in recent months. In this context, even minor frictions in the labor market can hinder matching and contribute to labor shortages.
Occupational Mismatch
One key labor market friction is “occupational mismatch,” a misalignment between the types of occupations employers are demanding and the occupational experience in the unemployed population.
To better understand this challenge, SHRM introduced two metrics: the constrained unfillable job postings share (UJS) and constrained unmatchable unemployed share (UUS), which measure the share of job postings and unemployed people, respectively, that cannot be matched due to differences in recent occupational experience. This is equivalent to saying that each unemployed person can only flow into the occupational group that matches their most recent occupational experience.
Tracking the UJS and UUS over time demonstrates that, under the matching constraints imposed, there are always some job openings and unemployed people who face challenges in the labor market. For instance, even during the peak of the pandemic-era labor market boom, when job postings outnumbered unemployed people by nearly two-to-one, an estimated 6% to 8% of unemployed people could not be matched to a position in the same occupational group as their most recent employment experience.
After this period, the UJS declined steadily while the UUS rose, reflecting a decline in job postings and a slow rise in the unemployed population. Since mid-to-late 2024, however, both metrics have remained relatively stable. As of April 2026, the latest month for which data are available, an estimated 35.3% of job postings cannot be filled by unemployed people whose most recent occupational experience aligns with the posting, whereas 25.9% of unemployed people cannot be matched to a posting whose occupational group matches their most recent employment experience.
Where Mismatch Is Most Common
A closer look into the most recent 3-month window of the UJS and UUS metrics reveals the occupational groups that are associated with unfillable job postings and unmatchable unemployed people. On average, an estimated 45% of all unfillable job postings come from the health care practitioners occupational group as of April 2026. Management occupations accounted for 10.8% of unfillable job postings, followed by business and financial operations (9.6%), computer and mathematical occupations (7.7%), and installation, maintenance, and repair (5.7%). All other groups account for less than 5% of unfillable job postings, with eight groups accounting for none at all.
Unemployed people who cannot be matched to a job posting aligned with their recent occupational experience are less concentrated in any one group. As of April 2026, one-quarter (25.1%) of the unmatchable unemployed were in the construction and extraction occupations group on average, followed by 18.9% in food preparation and serving, 17.1% in transportation and material moving, 12.4% in building and grounds cleaning and maintenance. All other groups accounted for less than 10% of the unmatchable unemployed, including 12 groups accounting for none at all.
The absence of unmatched unemployed people in these 10 occupational groups could reflect distinct labor market dynamics: While healthcare roles are experiencing unprecedented demand due to demographic factors, other fields such as computer and mathematical, business and financial operations, life, physical, and social science are seeing reduced labor demand, potentially influenced by automation and AI exposure, yet still maintain a surplus of job postings relative to available candidates.
While these metrics are useful for gauging the occupations that are experiencing a national labor shortage or surplus, occupational mismatch is not the only constraint plausibly preventing matching in real-world labor market conditions. For example, at any time, even if there might technically be enough unemployed people with the relevant occupational experience to satisfy every job posting nationwide, labor shortages can still persist locally when job seekers are not geographically aligned with available positions.
What Do These Findings Mean for You?
Labor market conditions are often described in broad terms — either portrayed as favorable for one group (e.g., employers) and unfavorable for another (e.g., job seekers) or vice versa. While these generalizations capture some truth, they frequently mask important nuances. For instance, under a basic occupational mismatch constraint, there will always be some organizations and job seekers who experience either favorable conditions or heightened challenges simultaneously. Knowing exactly where your organization falls will depend on tracking the information contained in these quarterly reviews.
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