Job Openings Surge, But Hiring Disconnect Raises Questions

U.S. employers posted significantly more job openings in April than economists expected, signaling continued resilience in the labor market even as broader economic uncertainty persists.

According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings climbed to 7.62 million in April, up from 6.89 million in March and well above economists’ median forecast of 6.87 million. The increase of 731,000 openings marked the largest monthly gain in five years and pushed open jobs to their highest level since mid-2024.

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The unexpected surge suggests employers remain willing to hire despite concerns about slowing growth, inflation pressures, and ongoing uncertainty. However, labor market experts caution that the headline figure may overstate the strength of underlying hiring demand.

“The April JOLTS report reiterates that the job market is still in a holding pattern, staying aloft and not deteriorating sharply,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. While many observers will focus on the jump in openings, Zhao said that’s not the right indicator to focus on.

He noted that the spike in openings was unusually concentrated, driven almost entirely by a 39% increase in openings in professional and business services. The sector accounted for nearly all of April’s job openings increase, rising by 668,000 positions.

“If you look at the spike, it seems unusually large, which could point to a data issue,” Zhao said, adding that the increase may not translate into actual hiring activity.

Indeed, hiring activity moved in the opposite direction. The number of new hires fell by more than 400,000 in April, highlighting a growing disconnect between posted vacancies and successful recruitment.

“The report sends a split signal,” said Nicole Bachaud, labor economist at ZipRecruiter. “Job openings jumped to the highest level in nearly two years, signaling that the labor market is reheating. The puzzle in April’s data is that despite more job opportunities, less hiring is taking place,” she said.

Bachaud said the widening gap between openings and hires points to ongoing skills mismatches, particularly as employers seek workers with expertise in emerging technologies. “Rather than simply eliminating jobs, the rapid adoption of AI tools is creating new categories of specialized roles that require specific technical skills that the current workforce doesn’t yet have in abundance,” she said.

She added that skilled trades continued to see elevated openings, as employer demand in construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure remains high. “Reduced immigration and an aging workforce have tightened available labor supply in these industries more than almost anywhere else, keeping openings persistently unfilled,” Bachaud said. “Finance and insurance saw the sharpest pullback, with openings falling 135,000 from March — the largest single-industry decline of the month, and a reversal from recent strength in that sector.”

The strength in openings appears concentrated among the largest employers. According to Indeed Hiring Lab economist Cory Stahle, job openings at companies with 5,000 or more employees were 81% above pre-pandemic levels in April. Yet those organizations account for less than 5% of all openings captured in JOLTS data.

“Put simply, the giants are posting like it’s a boom, but smaller employers are not,” Stahle said. He noted that roughly 90% of job openings come from employers with fewer than 1,000 workers, where hiring demand has remained largely stable since mid-2024.

“The eye-catching rebound at the very top is too small a slice to move the needle on its own,” Stahle said. “And while a small slice of openings among large employers may not move the headline, it is a slice to watch. The largest employers are typically where signs of structural change emerge first, and in this case, AI adoption is also concentrated among large employers.”

Noah Yosif, chief economist at the American Staffing Association, said that the disparity between job openings and hiring suggests employers are taking their time to hire the right candidates as rising labor costs make investments in headcount more expensive to miscalculate.

“Employers are especially cautious about hiring in professional and business services, where staffing services are concentrated, as AI is rapidly transforming workloads and responsibilities,” Yosif said. “However, long-term erosion in labor supply means turnover in the labor market at large will be less likely to suffer serious losses due to price shocks like geopolitical turmoil or policy uncertainties. As a result, labor momentum is suffering a slow burn where jobs are taking longer to fill, employees are taking more time to move, and fewer opportunities are concentrated among a handful of occupations and industries.”

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Layoffs, Quits Muted

Layoffs declined to 1.69 million in April from 1.88 million in March, bringing the layoff rate roughly in line with pre-pandemic norms. While layoffs continue to generate headlines, their overall volume remains relatively stable across the economy.

“The April numbers extend a clear recovery arc,” Bachaud said, noting that openings have increased by more than 1 million since December, but hiring hasn’t followed. She added that subdued quit rates indicate workers “don’t trust the market enough to risk leaving a job they already have, even as more openings appear.”